Monday, October 5, 2015

Las Cosas Que Vi Este Fin De Semana: Week 5

With conference play beginning in earnest, we were welcomed with a little shaking up at the top of the rankings this week which isn’t surprising. I’ve always thought early season polls were kind of a joke. As a matter of fact, I have pretty much given up caring about polls since the induction of the playoff committee last season. But, I guess people like the polls and it sparks conversation so, whatever.

Pongamonos en marcha!

Week 5

The Gators put a whoopin on Ole Miss in the swamp this weekend. It gets a bit more difficult for Florida with back to back away games against Mizzou and LSU, but as of now, it looks like the path to the SEC East title may go through Gainesville.

PAC 12 South
I know you are all loyal Quick Buck Thursday readers so I hope you took my advice and dropped a bit of cash on the Sun Devils to win Saturday. Even if you didn’t take advantage of the free money, I think this is going to be a fun conference to watch this year.

Indiana and Purdue
The state of Indiana was so close to becoming my favorite state this past Saturday. Both state schools came so close to upsetting the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. Indiana did it with backups at quarterback and running back.

Michigan State and Ohio State better get their shit together if they want to remain top ten programs – Michigan State already dropped two spots to #4 this week. The Spartans have a week before heading to Ann Arbor to face a surging Michigan program. Ohio State has more time, facing virtually no threat until they get Michigan State in Columbus on November 21st followed by their trip to Ann Arbor the following week.

Vegas Totals for Big XII Games
Will Baylor/TCU on November 27th force Vegas to set the highest game point total in history? If the game were this week, it would almost be a certainty.  

Shout Outs
Iowa – Are the Hawkeyes for real? Holding #19 Wisconsin to 6 points at home might suggest they are.

The SEC Guy – He finally bested me this week going 3-1. Bringing his win total to 4 on the year. Way to go buddy.

Larry Rose III – The New Mexico State running back rushed for 260 yards and 3 TDs in a losing effort against rival New Mexico.

Tanner Mangum – The BYU QB bounced back against UConn going 35 of 53 for 365 yards and 2 TDs

Bet of the week: 
Arizona State

As I predicted the Sun Devils paid out a shiny +455 by travelling to UCLA and handling the Bruins quite convincingly. 

Friday, October 2, 2015

Lazy Man's Michigan Preview: Maryland

Screw the hurricane! It’s time for some B1G action!!!

(22) Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 0-0 B1G) @ Maryland Terrapins (2-1, 2-2 B1G)
Byrd Stadium Saturday, 10/3 Noon ET, BTN

In preparation for this game I forced myself to watch the Maryland vs West Virginia game last weekend. That only lasted one half due to the Mountaineers dominance and 38-0 score. A quick glance at the game recap later in the day confirmed this was a good idea.

What I saw during that half of play was West Virginia gashing Maryland up the gut gaining yard after easy yard on the ground. If you have seen Michigan over the last three weeks you have seen the offensive line pound the crap out of opposing defensive front sevens, eights and sometimes nines. This is a good thing, people.

I foresee a lot of De’Veon Smith in isolation against safeties or cornerbacks which indicates Michigan’s offense is humming. And if Joaquin brings Bad Jake Rudock within its stormy offerings, then all should still be fine with the offense.

Oh, and whatever you do, DO NOT PUNT TO WILL LIKELY!

Another week. Another spread offense.

Michigan has damn near perfected their nickel and, as they showed last week, dime packages. Dealing with the Terps’ spread shouldn’t be a problem.

Maryland’s featured running back, Brandon Ross, rattled off 130 yards against the Mountaineers’ surprisingly good defense, but five interceptions thrown by Maryland’s two competing quarterbacks prevented their offense from gaining any momentum in the game.

So, yes, Michigan is gifted another shaky QB situation. This is a good thing for the secondary and let’s hope the weather holds up long enough to let Maryland try and sling it around a bit.

I don’t think it applies to the defense, but I really want to emphasize this point: Do not punt to Will Likely, please.

Special Teams
Kenny Allen is rounding in to a pretty reliable kicker, which shores up one of the question marks coming into the season for Michigan.

Don’t punt to Likely

The punt return team keeps inching closer and closer to a block and if conditions deteriorate, it could finally happen this weekend.

Also, don’t punt to Likely

I’m sure Blake O’Neill learned the proper times to take off running on fake punts after last week, so let’s put that concern to rest.

Seriously, don’t punt to Likely

I guess the only final thing to say here is:


Look, this shouldn’t be a test for the Wolverines. Maryland is a not good team and Michigan has better athletes and certainly the better coaching staff. But we are talking about Michigan, on the road, in hurricane weather conditions, so anything can happen.

(Don’t punt to Likely)

The defense is flirting with elite status and the offense isn’t killing them like it has the previous two years. This team is built to win on the road. Look back at the Utah game whereiIf Bad Jake Rudock didn’t show up, the Wolverines get out of Salt Lake with a “W”. Maryland is nowhere near Utah. Hell they’re not even BYU.

(Don’t punt to Likely)

Provided many, many, weird things do not happen, I expect Michigan to be running its Vanilla Offense by the start of the third quarter. The defense should dominate again and the offense will show more progress with a huge day on the ground.

And for the love of everything good and holy, if you have to punt,


Michigan 38 - 0

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Quick Buck Thursday: Feelin Like Struttin

I'd be lying if I said I was strutting all day on Monday.

One has to love a solid winning week and last week we almost nailed the clean sweep. A week like last sets the misery of the past two weeks on fire and sets it adrift like ashes on the breeze.

Let’s keep it going, shall we?

Bank Roll: 80 units
Season record: 9-11
Bonus record: 6-3

UConn @ BYU -17.5 – 5 units
BYU is a good team that entered last week’s game in Ann Arbor a bit haggard and walked into a buzz saw in Michigan. Bronco won’t stand for that. BYU is looking to regain some toughness and rebound at the expense of the weary Huskies.

Minnesota @ Northwestern -4 – 5 units
This game features two decent defenses and two mediocre offenses and sets up to be a gritty, gritty, B1G grind fest. I watched Ohio gift the Gophers the game last Saturday dashing my hopes of a perfect week.

Northwestern, 3-1 ATS, continues Minnesota’s struggles on the road in their B1G opener.

Houston -7 @ Tulsa – 5 units
Simply put; I’m riding the hot hand. Nothing more.

Texas @ TCU -15.5 – 5 Units
TCU almost got embarrassed on national TV last week, saved by a tipped passed near the end of regulation and need to rebound to climb back into the committee’s good graces.

Texas, 1-3 on the season, is a few plays (and some questionable officiating) away from an impressive 3-1 start in Charlie Strong’s second season, but playing on the road against a team with National Championship aspirations will not be an easy task.

Northern Illinois -3 @ Central Michigan – 5 units
The Huskies are coming off a two game stretch where they have faced tough, tough defenses and still managed a cover. After that, playing a team like Central Michigan is sure to feel like a walk in the park. Plus the home team in the last two meetings is 0-2 ATS.

The Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Ohio State @ Indiana – Over 64.5
Ohio State has secondary issues; Indiana can score a lot of points through the air.

Indiana has a terrible defense; Ohio State has Elliot, Jones, Barrett and Smith.

Points will come aplenty.

The Bob Drake “I need another team for my 21-team teaser” Double Bonus
Western Kentucky @ Rice – Over 72.5
I almost put the MN@NW rock fight in this spot, but where is the fun in that? Rice is in for the second week in a row to keep this bonus perfect on the year.

The Best Bet of the Week Triple Bonus
Arizona St +475 @ UCLA
So, so close last week. But I think I’ve bitched about Ohio enough this week.
The Sun Devils are officially under achieving on the year. So,z naturally, they will win this week.

BTW the home team hasn’t won this game since 2011.  

Monday, September 28, 2015

Las Cosas Que Vi Este Fin De Semana: Week 4

Is it just me or is the SEC very average looking this year? Outside of LSU, I don’t see a dominate team and it’ll be interesting to see what narratives the media force feeds us this week.

Offense rules the day in the Big XII.

Pac-12 is wide-freaking-open with preseason hypers Oregon, Arizona and Arizona State all losing over the weekend.

Is the B1G back?

If you’re in the ACC don’t schedule ECU. You have been warned.

Pongamonos en marcha!

Week 4
Michigan Defense
Vanquish the Foes’ worst-case pretty much came true Saturday. BYU came out flat, couldn’t run the ball and Mangum was under pressure all day long. This is the first time BYU has been shutout since 2003 as Michigan’s defense held BYU to 105 yds of total offense and 0 points.

The Horned Frogs remained undefeated with a tipped pass in the endzone that fortuitously fell into the awaiting hands of a TCU wide receiver. Sometimes it takes a little luck to stay undefeated.

The Ute’s dealt the Ducks their worst home loss in almost 50 years. I thought that Oregon’s offensive line would struggle with Utah’s defensive front, but I didn’t realize how right I would be.

“Do your feet hurt? Because you shot yourself in both of them.”

The Bobcats had the Gophers all but beat and gave up stupid costly penalties in the final two minutes to basically hand Minnesota the win.

We were so close fellas. So close.

Shout Outs
Leonard Fournette – Leonard carried the ball 26 times for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns on Saturday. That dude’s a beast.

Tony Sanchez – the UNLV coach notched his first collegiate win Saturday, scoring 80 points in the process. Congrats Coach.

Big XII Defenses – Looks like WVU is the only team with one. We’ll find out if defenses do in fact win championships.

Bet of the week: 

The Pirates paid out a nice +330 by beating Virginia Tech on the road this weekend. That’s ECU fifth straight victory over the ACC. Take note, ACC ADs. 

Friday, September 25, 2015

Lazy Man's Michigan Preview: BYU

Let's hope I'm not screaming Hasa Diga Eebowai in the 4th quarter.

We are back in action this week and this time with a real opponent.

The BYU Cougars come to town for the final game of the Wolverines’ West Coast pre-B1G tour.

(22) BYU Cougars (2-1) @ Michigan Wolverines (2-1, 0-0 B1G)
Michigan Stadium Saturday, 9/25 Noon ET, ABC

I don’t think there is anything else to say other than: “don’t turn the damn ball over”.

Rudock has been less than stellar these first three games, and the BYU faithful are counting on it continuing. BYU is 16th in the nation in turnover margin with 7 picks in their favor. Rudock needs to have a clean game.

For that to happen the run game has to be successful. That success will depend on whether BYU’s nose tackle, Travis Tuiloma, plays and is healthy enough to play well. He’s a NFL caliber guy that gives the opposing guard fits. The good news is that BYU has exclusively played spread-based teams thus far. We’ll see how their 3-3-5 holds up against Michigan’s power run game.

If the line can do its job and get Smith one on one with a safety or linebacker, things will look good.

I love this defense.

Although overshadowed by the play of the defensive line, Michigan’s corner play this year has been spectacular.

Yet again, Michigan will be facing a freshman quarterback in Hail Mary maven, Tanner Mangum. The 22 year old (he spent two years spreading the good word of Joseph Smith) has three talented wide receivers to toss the rock to, which they rely on to get them down the field. The good news is Michigan’s tall and talented corners can erase the height advantage of these gentlemen.

BYU’s offense doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart, they look to their defense to win them games.

Special Teams
The contrast in special teams between this year and last year is striking as this year’s special teams is a treat to watch.

Which is good because this game is going to come down to field position and field goals.

This game will be bruising on both sides. Two solid defenses playing a game of chicken and whichever defense breaks first probably loses.

Can Michigan’s secondary get some turnovers or hold up against Sir Chucks-it-Deep enough to stall the BYU offense? And conversely, can Rudock play like Iowa Rudock and not turn the damn ball over? These are your keys, my friends.

I believe both will happen.

Michigan has shown they can beat you running inside and outside. Expect a good blend of Smith and Isaac with a dash of Rudock to Chesson/Johnson deep to keep the safeties out of the box.

Lewis and/or Stribling get a pick and keep Michigan ahead in the turnover column.

Wolverines win a bruising defensive slobber-knocker.

Michigan 24 - 19

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Quick Buck Thursday: Stepping in the right direction

Polish pop always puts me in a good mood.

We took a step in the right direction last week with two pick wins and a split in the bonus. Let’s maintain that heading and cash more winners this week.

Bank Roll: 55 units
Season record: 4-11
Bonus record: 4-2

Boise State -2.5 @ Virginia – 5 units
We look to start our Friday Double Feature off with a “W”. The money is heavy on the under in this game meaning defense will have heavy influence in the outcome.

I’ll take the better of the two defenses for the win, Alex.

Stanford -16 @ Oregon State – 5 units
I watched Michigan’s “Stanford-lite” offense demolish the Beavers two weeks ago and after last week’s drubbing of USC it looks like Stanford is putting its early season woes behind it.

If Stanford is what it should be, a better version of Michigan, this is an easy cover.

Navy -6.5 @ UConn – 5 units
Yes this is the third QBT appearance for UConn, and damn it, the third time is a charm.

Navy’s option is too weird to prep for sandwiched between two road games.

UMASS @ Notre Dame -29 – 5 Units
Usually I hate betting on Notre Dame, but UMASS isn’t very good and Brian Kelly is douchey enough to run up the score on the poor bastards. Add to that UMASS is allowing 36 ppg on average and I honestly don’t believe they’ll even score on ND.

Texas State @ Houston -16.5 – 5 units
Tom Hermann is on a mission to add Houston to the ranks of great Texas football schools. Any chance he has to put another Texas school in its place, he’s going to do it.

The Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Cincinnati @ Memphis – Over 66.5
The Bearcats may not be as explosive as Bowling Green, but they’re at least in the same neighborhood offensively. I’m betting on Memphis in back to back weeks to flex its offensive muscle.

The Bob Drake “I need another team for my 21-team teaser” Double Bonus
Rice @ Baylor – Over 74.5
Baylor is averaging 61 ppg. Rice, 40.7 ppg.
Baylor is allowing 26 ppg. Rice, 27.3 ppg.
I may not be a licensed Mathematician, but 74.5 points shouldn’t be an issue.  

The Best Bet of the Week Triple Bonus
Ohio +325 @ Minnesota
If you read my Monday recap posts, you should be aware I point out the best bet of the week. With that in mind I’ve decided to add a bonus pick here and see if we can’t cash in on one of these sweet victories.

Minnesota is a bit of an offensive mess right now. Ohio has the horses to hang with the Gophers on defense and just might have enough on offense to nab a win in Minneapolis. 

Monday, September 21, 2015

Las Cosas Que Vi Este Fin De Semana: Week 3

The short answer is: no mucho.

Need a reason? This weekend the Vegas Grillbillies made our BBQ competition debut at a charity event called “Pigs for the Kids”. So not sleeping Friday night then serving thousands of people smoked meats all day Saturday didn’t leave much time for college football.

We did keep up on scores and what not and I’m currently looking into one of those DirecTV tailgate kits so this missing games stuff will be rectified for our next outing!

All that said…

Pongamonos en marcha!

Week 3
Whelp. (shrug)

Boston College
Their defensive front is tough. Keep an eye on those unders, kids.

Somehow the Canes are 3-0. That is one ugly team to watch. I feel bad for Miami fans, I do.

After falling to Stanford this week, will the hype train derail or is this simply Stanford finding their stride? Sarkisian better hope it’s the latter or he may be looking for work come January.

Shout Outs
Pat Fitzgerald – The Wildcats are off to a 3-0 start. The B1G West is there for the taking, so go get it Pat.

Chad Kelly – Tossed 341 yards and no picks against the Bama D and outplayed both Crimson Tide quarterbacks, who combined for three turnovers. Nice work!

Goes to show that good QB play goes a long way in this game.

Trevone Boykin – 454 yards passing and 6 total touchdowns (1 rushing). Looks like the Horned Frogs have finally adjusted to Big 12 play.

Pig For The Kids – A great day of BBQ and music. If you’re in Las Vegas around this time next year, and like smoked pork, make sure you check it out.

Bet of the week: 
South Alabama

Mississippi made a go at it paying out in the +280 range. Stanford also bounced back and delivered a +300. But your big bet of the week goes to the Jaguars of South Alabama who traveled across the country to pull out the overtime victory over San Diego State; delighting bettors with a +650 pay day. 

Friday, September 18, 2015

Lazy Man's Michigan Preview: UNLV

I love that new head coach Tony Sanchez has embraced Vegas. Keep it up Tone!

It's a little breather before BYU comes to town next week.

UNLV Runnin Rebels (0-2, 0-0 MWC) @ Michigan Wolverines (1-1, 0-0 B1G)
Michigan Stadium, Saturday 9/19 Noon ET BTN

If you thought last week was run heavy, just wait until tomorrow. UNLV deploys a 6'6" 230 NT. Maybe he's quick? Regardless, this game should showcase a ton of DeVeon Smith and the Wolverine's new found power run game. I wouldn't be surprised if Rudock throws less than 15 times.

UNLV lost it's starting QB last week and inserted what looked like a terrified back-up. This offense will essentially be the Beavers, but not as good. I'd look for the Wolverines to stack the box and force UNLV to throw the ball. This will give Wormly and crew plenty of opportunities to once again this week send the opposing QB into the fetal position.

Special Teams
I suspect we'll see lots of kick team and punt return team. Let's try and get Peppers a nice return. What do you say fellas?

Living in Vegas for the last five years, I really want to see UNLV do well. But, there's really no two ways about it, UNLV just isn't good. I think they've looked more competitive in two losses this season than I saw last year. Hiring Sanchez seems to have been a good call. But he's going to need some time.

This preview is a bit shortened this week as the Vegas Grillbillies are embarking on our maiden journey into competitive BBQ. As a matter of fact, I gotta get moving.

Michigan dominates early. Wilton Speight sees a full quarter of play. Peppers gets that return TD. Cole finally blocks that punt. All is well in Ann Arbor.

Michigan 48 - 6

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Quick Buck Thursday: Better Days Ahead

If Van Morrison says there will be better days, then damn it I believe it!

I don’t think in all the years I’ve been doing QBT I have ever gone 0-5. I haven’t actually taken the time to check, of course. Maybe if I had an intern.

Yes, I think I need an intern. Please apply in the comments if interested.

Anyway, screw last week. Here at Productive Sweatpants we are looking forward. Always looking forward.

Bank Roll: 60 units
Season record: 2-8
Bonus record: 3-1

Temple -12.5 @ UMASS – 5 units
People are jumping on Temple’s bandwagon so we figured we might as well, too. The Owls are 2-0 ATS and I don’t see them missing the cover this week.

Illinois +9.5 @ UNC – 5 units
Everyone thought the Illini were in trouble when they fired their coach two weeks before the season. However, it’s probably the best thing they could have done as Bill Cubit ran a successful outfit at Western Michigan.

The Illini were 3-13 ATS under Beckman’s control, but this is a new team. This is Cubit’s Illini.

A smart bettor might even toss a unit or two on the +300 moneyline.

Western Kentucky @ Indiana Over 69.5 – 5 units
Indiana is a lot like a MAC or Sunbelt team; all offense. WKY knows this kind of game so don’t be surprised if 69.5 isn’t hit sometime in the third quarter.

Colorado @ Colorado St +3.5 – 5 Units
One of the benefits of living on the West Coast is you get to see the Hawaii game before you’re so blindly drunk you can’t decipher if what you’re looking at is real grade school children playing Madden on your Xbox. So I actually saw Colorado play at Hawaii.

I know this series has traded winners the past couple years, and the Buffs were rumored to be better this season, but I don’t care. I saw what I saw.

Iowa State @ Toledo -7.5 – 5 units
One team upset an SEC dark horse last week. The other got beat by a middling B1G team. Which team would you bet on?

The Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan - Over 63
This thing is currently betting at 100% on the over in Vegas even after it’s been driven up 2 full points. EMU is better than people think.

In the two games both have played, the teams combined to average over 75 points.

The Bob Drake “I need another team for my 21-team teaser” Double Bonus
Memphis @ Bowling Green - Over 79.5

I’m 2-0 for the old man this year and the streak continues this week. Bowling Green seemingly can’t be stopped and Memphis has put up over 55 in both its games. 

Monday, September 14, 2015

Las Cosas Que Vi Este Fin De Semana: Week 2

My betting week was horrible, but from the aspect of pure football enjoyment, Week 2 was top notch.

Pongamonos en marcha!

Week 2
Well, well, well. Temple pulled off another upset. Is this the week we take notice of the mighty Owls?

Note to all future Cougar opponents: “KNOCK IT DOWN!!!” If Michigan/BYU is tight late when they meet in two weeks, I may turn off the TV, sit in a dark room and rock back and forth until the game is over.

Bowling Green
Is Bowling Green good? Honestly I’m not sure. I do know this; they won’t be tested again until Toledo comes to town November 17th.

Granted it was against Kent St and Western Illinois, but the fighting Cubit’s have only allowed 3 points in their first two games. Will Carolina pose much of a threat next week? Can the Illini be a contender in the wide open Big Ten West? I need answers!

Arizona State
You may have missed the late game, but Arizona State needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to beat Cal Poly. The Sun Devils gave up 21 points to the FCS squad. Maybe we had this team all wrong.

Shout Outs
Eli Jenkins – The Jacksonville St QB just about pulled off a huge upset at Auburn.
Eli, next time just throw it out of the back of the endzone.

Tom Hermann – Houston gets a big upset and for the second week in a row as the Cougars continue to play well.

Keep it up Tom. One of the big boys will be calling soon enough.

Matt Johnson – Through two games the Bowling Green QB is completing 60% of his passes and is 85 yards short of 1,000.

Bet of the week: 

Hey Brett, maybe you should focus on your own schedule and not worry about anyone else’s. For those of you had the cajones to lay money on the Toledo moneyline, I hope you enjoyed that +1200 win. Nice job Rockets.