Monday, December 27, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

It's a multivitamin. I was totally confusing it with

Now that it is cleared up.

The Where and When:
December 27th, 5:00 p.m. est, Independence Stadium, SHREVEPORT, LA ESPN2/ESPN3.

The Who:
Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3 MWC) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6, 4-4 ACC)

The Why:
Air Force finds their way into their 4th straight bowl game by way of finishing 3rd in the Mountain West Conference.

Georgia Tech comes into the the game finishing 7th in the ACC after a disappointing season. This is their 14th consecutive bowl game and 39th overall.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
The Falcons are one of three premier triple option teams. They are 25th in total offense and 31st in scoring. That offense comes from running the ball as they are 2nd nationally. That also means they don't pass. Ranking 117th in passing with only 119 yds/g. Defensively they are decent, accept, believe it or not, against the run. Total D they are 42nd giving up 22 ppg (36th). They are great against the pass at 6th, but somehow can't stop the run coming in at 100th.

These two teams are basically the same. Paul Johnson, coming from Navy has the number one ranked rushing attack in the nation. They are 34th in total offense and 53rd in scoring. But much like the Falcons, they are second to last in passing offense. Defensively they are average at best. Coming in at 67th in total defense, 59th in scoring, they are better against the pass (47th) than the run (79th).

The Falcons took care of non-winning teams winning 5 and losing none. Tech struggled against winning teams going 1-3. Down the stretch Air Force was okay at 3-2, but the Yellow Jackets were simply terrible at 1-4 after they lost Josh Nesbitt on Nov. 4th.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I love Top Gun* and I hate bees. Go Falcons!

Vegas Edge
Air Force is a 3 point favorite with the line staying pretty steady. Neither of these two teams are good ATS with the Falcons going 4-7 and Tech going 5-5. Air Force got overvalued after the close loss at Oklahoma and has been great to bet against all year. After Tech's loss to Kansas I've stayed far, far away. Nothing good can come from betting on this game.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
I think with Nesbitt out, the scales tip towards the Falcons. But with Air Force being so bad against the run defensively, who knows? What I do know is I think this game will literally reverse football time. It would be sweet if they did an exclusive black and white broadcast of it. If you detest the forward pass, this should be football porn for you. All titillating football aside, since I have to make a pick, I'll take Air Force to capitalize on two key Tech turnovers and take home the victory. Stay away from this game from a gambling perspective.

*Yes, I am aware Top Gun is a Navy thing. But to the Pool Prognosticator Top Gun and the Air Force mean airplanes.

PSBAT update: I am now 5-3

No comments: