Thursday, December 30, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

The Where and When:
December 30th, 12:00 p.m. est, Gerald Ford Stadium, DALLAS, TX ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Army Black Knights (6-6) vs Southern Methodist Mustangs (7-6, 6-2 CUSA)

The Why:
Army enters it's first bowl game in 14 years finishing 3rd among the independents this year.

SMU is in it's second consecutive bowl game under June Jones after finishing second in Conference USA.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
The Black Knights are your typical service academy. They run the triple options which is good for the 10th ranked rush offense and are the worst passing offense in the FBS. Good for 86th in total offense, they are a decent scoring offense at 55th. Defensively, Army has been good, not great. The 26th total defense gives up 25.2 ppg (56th) and holds down the pass (23rd) better than the run (50th). But still solid numbers for the Knights.

SMU is a typical June Jones team. They are 33rd in total offense and 66th in scoring at 26.6 ppg. Their passing game excels and is 22nd where the run game lacks at 77th overall. Defensively they are fairly average. The Mustangs are the 55th ranked total offense and give up 26.6 ppg (66th). They are good against the run at 49th and average against the pass at 66th.

Not surprising Army was 0-5 vs winning teams and 4-4 against non-AQ schools. SMU was 6-2 against non-winning teams and 6-5 vs non-AQs. SMU fared better down the stretch with a 3-2 to Army's 2-3 record in their last five.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Mustangs are awesome. I kind of like to think they are unicorns that lost their horns. Which is kind of sad, but still neat. But this is the Armed Forces game, right? So doesn't that means that Army will win? And they are Knights (even though they are evil Black ones) and Knights ride horses. Army!!

Vegas Edge
SMU is a 7.5 favorite in this one. Neither team has been good ATS at 6-7 and 5-6, SMU and Army respectively. This is a home game for SMU and they are just 2-3 ATS at home as the favorite and Army is 4-2 ATS on the road and 2-1 ATS as the dog. The over is just 52 and with neither of these defenses being that stingy, that might be something to look at.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Look, it's a home game for SMU. It's hard to pick against a team at home. But, with Army's record ATS I can see taking them and the points. I think SMU wins this game but not cover.

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