Thursday, December 30, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

The Where and When:
December 30th, 6:40 p.m. est, LP Field, NASHVILLE, TN ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5, 4-4 ACC) vs Tennessee Volunteers (6-6, 3-5 SEC)

The Why:
UNC had a bit of a rough year. After having 14 players suspended early in the year, they ended a disappointing season finishing 7th in the ACC. But this bowl trip marks their third straight bowl and 28th all time.

Tennessee is still cleaning up the mess Lane Kiffin left behind. In his first year Derek Dooley and the Vols finished 9th in the SEC and in their 49th bowl game tying Texas for second most all time.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Offensively UNC is decent. Ranked 50th in total offense they are pretty pass heavy (25th). They don't run the ball particularly well with the 95th ranked rushing offense and only put up 24.9 ppg (79th). Defensively they are better. The 32nd ranked total D is 43rd in scoring, 36th against the run and 38th against the pass.

Tennessee struggled this year. The 74th ranked total offense put up 27 ppg (61st). They did pass the ball well with the 35th ranked passing attack, but couldn't run it to save their lives with the 100th ranked rushing O. Defensively they were mediocre at best. Coming in at 69th, 54th, 63rd and 81st in total, scoring, run and pass defense nationally.

UNC was successful against non-winning teams at 5-1. Tennessee didn't beat a winning team all year going 0-5. UNC went .500 against AQ school at 5-5 where Tenn finished just 3-6. Tennessee did finish the season better at 4-1 to UNC's 3-2.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I think Volunteering is so very important now-a-days. I mean there are so many people less fortunate. It's nice that a school chose the people that help as their mascot. But North Carolina has it's own beautiful blue color. It's perfect on me. I like UNC!

Vegas Edge
Vegas lists this one as a toss up with UNC a one point favorite. Over the season TN has been a little better ATS at 6-4 with UNC going 6-5. But over the last five games TN is a perfect 5-0 ATS and UNC has gone just 1-3.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
This is a tough one. These teams are pretty similar and statistically UNC looks better. And with the Vols not having a win against a winning team, I'm inclined to go with UNC. But with the the Vols on a streak ATS down the stretch, it's a tough one. I'll pick UNC, but will likely stay away from betting this one.

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