Tuesday, December 28, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Insight Bowl

Insight Bowl


The Where and When:
December 28th, 10:00 p.m. est, Sun Devil Stadium, TEMPE, AZ ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
#12 Missouri Tigers (10-2, 6-2 Big 12) vs Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5, 4-4 Big 10)

The Why:
Missouri has a quietly good season. They tied for the North division lead and finished 4th in what was a loaded Big 12. The Tigers are making a record 6th straight bowl appearance.

Iowa has a bit of a disappointing season finishing 4th in the Big 10. This marks their 10th straight bowl and 25th bowl all-time.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
When you think of Mizzou, you typically think offense. And you wouldn't be entirely wrong. Ranking 45th, 44th, 48th and 43rd in total, scoring, rushing and passing, the offense is good. But they have won this year by playing defense. the 41st rank total defense is 56th against the run and 36th against the pass. Most impressive is they are 6th in scoring defense in a offense-minded conference.

Iowa is also defensive-minded. But can get it done on offense too. the 61st ranked total offense is scoring 29 ppg (48th) and surprisingly throws with more success (45th) than rushes (76th). But they really are one of the best defenses in the country. Ranking 15th in total D, they are 7th in scoring, 6th against the run and 55th against the pass.

Mizzou has the better record against winning teams going 5-2 to the Hawkeyes 3-4. And to no surprise the Tigers dominated unranked teams going 8-1, where Iowa was only 1-2 versed ranked teams. Iowa did kind of collapse down the stretch going 2-3, where Mizzou closed in the black at 3-2.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Hawkeyes? Who names their team after a body part? Weird. Plus Tigers are cuter and would totally win in a fight. Go Tigers, theeeyyy'rrree Great!

Vegas Edge
Mizzou is a 2.5 point favorite. Mizzou is also just a game better than Iowa ATS. Iowa was not favored only once this season and lost ATS.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Look, Iowa is in a world of hurt right now. Not only flailing down the stretch but with the drug allegations and arrests, I'm not sure how they rebound for this game. Their only hope is to force Gabbert into some dumb mistakes by getting pressure, which they can do. But given that Iowa likes to sit back in their two deep against spread teams, I think Gabbert will pick them apart. I'll take Mizzou to cover.

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