Thursday, December 23, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

The Where and When:
December 23rd, 8:00 p.m. est, Qualcomm Stadium, SAN DIEGO, CA ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Navy Midshipmen (8-3) vs San Diego State Aztecs (8-4, 5-3 MWC)

The Why:
Navy finished the year as the top ranked independent. They will be traveling to their 8th straight bowl game and 17th overall. Although they have lost their last three bowl games it's been by a combined 14 points.

San Diego State in their first year under Brady Hoke had a solid season, finishing 4th in the Mountain West. This will be the Aztecs first bowl game since 1998.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
It's no secret what Navy is going to do: They're going to run. They are the 5th ranked rushing offense and the 38th total offense in the nation. They put up 31 ppg good for 40th. They rank low in passing at 118th, but Ricky Dobbs has become something of a decent thrower. So much so that Navy has changed the way they recruit the QB position. Defensively the Middies are average at 64th in total D, 65th against the run and 65th against the pass. What they do fairly well is not let you score, only giving up 22 ppg (36th).

SDSU isn't a polar opposite, but they do things different on the offensive side of the ball. Ranking 20th in total and scoring offense, they're the 10th ranked passing offense and just 63rd in rushing. Defensively the Aztecs are actually better than Navy. Ranking 42nd in total, 43rd in scoring, 51st against the run and 50th in passing defense.

Navy was more successful against winning teams at 2-2, where the Aztecs were only 1-4. Against non-AQ scores they both had good records going 6-1 and 7-3 respectively. Navy was one game better to close the season at 4-1.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
It's almost like a battle of Cortez and the Central American natives all over again. Navy and it's sailors are coming into SDSU house in attempts to take it over. I never liked how those poor Aztecs got slaughtered. I'm rooting for them this time.

Vegas Edge
The current line is SDSU -3.5, which is up from the opening -2.5. The only thing that jumps out is that as a Favorite SDSU is just 3-3 ATS where Navy is 3-0 ATS as the dog.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
I'm with the PPP on this one, I think the Aztecs have their revenge. But looking at what Vegas has to say, there is a good chance they don't cover. Look for a few big plays in a game that ends with a late Aztec field goal to win, but not cover.

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