Wednesday, December 29, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Texas Bowl

Texas Bowl

The Where and When:
December 29th, 6:00 p.m. est, Reliant Stadium, HOUSTON, TX ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6, 4-4 Big 10) vs Baylor Bears (7-5, 4-4 Big 12)

The Why:
The Illini finished 5th in the Big Ten to get into their second bowl in four years.

Baylor had a banner season finishing 6th in the Big 12. This ends a 16 year bowl drought for the Bears.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
If the Illini are going to do anything offensively, it's run. They are the 13th ranked rushing offense and just the 115th ranked passing offense. But they are a good offense at 57th in total offense and 34th ranked in scoring. Defensively they are equally as solid. Ranking 37th, 53rd, 29th and 54th in total, scoring, rushing and pass defense.

Baylor is much more offensive minded. The 12 ranked total offense runs (23rd) and passes (20th) equally as effectively. They are putting up 32 ppg (29th). Defensively they are much more vulnerable. Just 98th in total defense they give up 29 ppg (82). They are slightly better against the run (72nd) and just bad against the pass at 114th.

Both teams closed out with the same 2-3 record. Illinois was just 3-5 against winning teams where as Baylor had no trouble with non-winning teams at 5-0.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I just saw Yogi Bear and it was really funny. Plus I'm not in favor of the objectionifying of Indigentous American Indian settlers. Go Bears!

Vegas Edge
The Bears are 1.5 favorites. But the Illini have been better ATS at 7-4 vs 5-6 for the Bears. And in the last five games Baylor is just 1-4 ATS. But I really like the over at 62.5.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Baylor is going to want this game bad. Even though Illinois had a two year lay off, it's nothing compared to 16. I also think Baylor is more complete. Vegas thinks this will be a toss up, but it reminds of the Illinois/Michigan game. Lots of points with an Illini loss. Baylor covers.

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