Wednesday, December 29, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Valero Alamo Bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

The Where and When:
December 29th, 9:15 p.m. est, Alamodome, SAN ANTONIO, TX ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2, 6-2 Big 12) vs Arizona Wildcats (7-5, 4-5 PAC 10)

The Why:
Ok St just missed a shot at the Big 12 championship when it lost Bedlam. But they finished 3rd in the Big 12. With the most wins in school history, they head into their fifth straight bowl game.

Arizona started strong and then faded down the stretch to finish 7th in the PAC 10. Despite their finish they are headed to their 3rd straight bowl game.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Oklahoma State is a scary good offense. They are the number 1 total offense and the 3rd ranked scoring offense. They rely on pass with the 2nd ranked passing attack, but aren't afraid to run either (29th). Defense is where they struggle. Just the 91st ranked total defense, they give up 27 ppg (68). They've been shredded through the air as the 115th ranked passing defense but can hold down the run (41st).

Arizona is a far more complete team. The 24th ranked total offense is also successful through the air with the 9th ranked attack. Not as proficient on the ground (85th), but they are putting up 29 ppg (46th). They are pretty solid defensively. They are 36th, 32nd, 29th and 41st ranked total, scoring, rushing and passing defense.

The Cowboys were far more successful vs winning teams at 6-2, where Arizona was just 2-3. The bigger note is down the stretch where the Cowboys were 4-1 and the Wildcats faltered at 1-4.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Every time I watch 8 seconds with Luke Perry, I cry. Love it. And he was a cowboy. I don't even really know what a wildcat is. But I do know what cowboys are. Although, their mascot needs a shave. Oh well, Go Cowboys!!

Vegas Edge
The line opened with OK St a TD favorite, but the line has slid just a bit and they now sit as a 5.5 pt fav. Looking at the numbers Arizona has been bad ATS just going 4-7. I think they got boost from an early win over an over-rated, mediocre Iowa team (I don't care what happened last night). OK St was much better ATS at 9-3. Might take a peek at the over sitting at 66.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
The PAC 10 overall was pretty putrid this year, so going 4-5 in that conference isn't all that impressive to me. I think the Cowboys have way too much offense in the game for the Wildcats to hang with. OK St wins by at least a TD.

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