Friday, December 17, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon: New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

The Where and When:
December 18th, 9:00 p.m. est, Superdome, New Orleans, LA ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Ohio Bobcats (8-4, 6-2 MAC) vs. Troy Trojans (7-5, 6-2 Sun Belt)

The Why:
Ohio arrives in the New Orleans Bowl by finishing second in the MAC East and 4th overall in the MAC. This is the Bobcats third bowl game under coach Frank Solich and second in a row.

Troy heads in as the Sun Belt champion. The Trojans are making their 3rd straight bowl appearance and 5th in seven years. They have either tied or won the Sun Belt over the last five years

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
As a typical Frank Solich team, Ohio is a solid defensive, run heavy team. Finishing 94th in total offense, 53rd in scoring and just 105th in passing, they are the 39th ranked rushing team. On the other side of the ball, they are solid. The 28th ranked total defense they defend the run well at 14th and hold teams to an average 21 pts/game, good for 34th nationally. Their weakness would be against the pass where they rank 61st overall.

Troy wins by passing and scoring. The 24th ranked total offense they are the 12th ranked passing attack and 27th scoring offense. They rank an average 61st rushing offense. Defensively, well they have one. 93rd in total offense, they're better against the run (80th) than the pass (101st) and allow 31 ppg good for 92nd overall.

Troy didn't beat a winning team all season, but were 7-3 against non-AQ schools. Ohio was 2-2 against winning teams and closed the season at 4-1.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Trojans...hee hee. Bobcats are kind of cute, I guess. But the Sun Belt sounds like a way better place than what ever the MAC is. Plus the cutest boy in my high school was named Troy.

Vegas Edge
Ohio is a 2.5 point favorite in this game. On the season the Bobcats are 7-4 ATS where as Troy was only 4-8 ATS. Troy is another team that hasn't played well on grass going 0-3 where Ohio is 3-2.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Defense wins championships. The only conference worse than the MAC was the Sun Belt this season. Troy's offense will be tested by Ohio's defense, granted they haven't seen a passing attack like Troy. Had Ohio not as effective as they are on the ground I would've given the nod to Troy. I don't think they'll be able to stop Ohio and I thin Ohio gets enough stops to win and cover.

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