Friday, December 17, 2010

PS Bowl-A-Thon: uDrove Humanitarian Bowl

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl

The Where and When:
December 18th, 5:30 p.m. est, Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3, 8-0 MAC) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 5-3 WAC)

The Why:
NIU rolled through the MAC like the conference had wronged them in some way. They were dominate until the MAC championship game where they were inexplicably defeated by Miami (Ohio). This is their 3rd consecutive bowl game and are one win shy of their most successful season, ever.

Fresno finished fourth in the WAC behind three ranked teams (Nevada, Boise, Hawaii). Falling to all three of those teams, they took care of business in the rest of conference play. Their only other loss was to Ol Miss early on. This is Fresno's third trip to the Humanitarian Bowl where they are 2-0.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
NIU, statistically is good. With the 21st ranked total offense, 7th ranked rushing, 89th ranked passing and 13th ranked scoring O. They dominate on the ground so the need to pass hasn't been there. Defensively they've been equally as impressive. the 27th ranked total and rushing defense, their also 35th in passing and 19th in scoring only allowing 19 pts/game.

Fresno was fairly average this season. the 71st ranked total offense, 55th in rushing, 67th in passing and 45th in scoring offense. Defensively, they were equally as average. 55th in total, 65th against the rush, 34th passing and 79th scoring defense.

Statistically, the Huskies should dominate this game. But according to Sagarin, Fresno did have the tougher schedule (82 vs 122). But he has NIU ranked above the Bulldogs.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Bulldogs are so ugly they are cute. But Huskies, we love how cuddly they are. Illinois vs California? Easy California. Go ugly-cute dogs!

Vegas Edge
Vegas says that the Huskies are a one point favorite. For those of you who followed Quick Buck Thursday know that we loved the Huskies because they went 9-2 ATS this season. Fresno went just 5-6 ATS. The Huskies are 1-1 ATS on grass this season and the Smurf Turf can be a tough place to play.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Wow, tough one. This should be good game. Both teams face Illinois this season with opposite results: NIU lost early and Fresno beat them late in the season. Probably not the best barometer as the Illini kind of fell apart at season end. And with NIU coach Jerry Kill heading to Minnesota, who knows what state the Huskies will be in. If the Bulldogs were better against the run we'd take them, but with the Huskies record ATS, we'll take the Huskies to win a close one.

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