Friday, January 7, 2011

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: AT&T Cotton Bowl

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Just because I think my son could become president before my Iphone ever worked that fast.

The Where and When:
January 7th, 8:00 p.m. est, Cowboy Stadium, ARLINGTON, TX, FOX.

The Who:
#11 Louisiana State University Tigers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) vs #17 Texas A&M Aggies (9-3, 6-2 Big 12)

The Why:
LSU survived the gauntlet of the SEC West with a 6-2 record and at 4th place finish. This is their 42nd bowl game all time and 11th straight.

The Aggies had a nice season. Finishing 5th in the Big 12 they will reach their 32nd bowl game all time and their 2nd straight.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
LSU is what LSU usually is, an average to bad offense with a good defense. They are the 89th total offense and 50th in scoring. They are good running the ball at 32nd but terrible passing at 107th, nationally. But, their D makes up for it. The 8th total defense is allowing just 17.8 ppg (9th). They can hold down the run at 38th and flat out stop the pass as the 9th ranked passing D.

A&M is more of a well-rounded team. The 22nd total offense is scoring 31.8 ppg, good for 37th. They can run as the 44th ranked rushing offense, but will look to throw as they are 18th nationally. Their defense is decent. Ranked 50th in total defense they are the 26th ranked scoring D. Better against the run at 14th, they struggle against the pass at 94th.

Both teams were good against winners. LSU went 5-2 and A&M went 5-3. Verse ranked teams LSU fared better going 3-2 to A&M's 2-3 record. LSU closed solid at 3-2 and A&M was flawless finishing 5-0.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Purple Tigers. I love it. I don't know what Aggies are? Wait is that like Raggedy Anne? IDK. I'll go with the Tigers.

Vegas Edge
LSU is a 2.5 point favorite in this game. The bad news is LSU was not so good ATS going 5-6. The Aggies were pretty good ATS going 7-4 and 5-0 down the stretch. As the fav, LSU went 3-4 ATS and A&M was even ATS at 2-2 as the dog. One might consider the under at 49.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
It's strength against strength on both sides of the ball. For me watching LSU football is like picking up a girl at closing time. It's ugly, but there isn't really another option, so... I think A&M is a more complete team. Points will likely be at a premium, but I think A&M takes care of the ball and LSU's defense just can't win it for them. A&M with the upset.

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