Saturday, January 1, 2011

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl

Get ready for a heavy dose of these jokers.

The Where and When:
January 1st, 1:00 p.m. est, Florida Citrus Bowl, ORLANDO, FL ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
#16 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3, 5-3 SEC) vs #9 Michigan State Spartans (11-1, 7-1 Big 10)

The Why:
The defending champs finished a surprising 5th in the SEC this season. They are entering their fourth straight New Year's Day bowl which marks their seventh straight.

Michigan State had a very surprising year finishing in a three-way, first place tie in the Big 10. The Spartans are making their fourth straight bowl appearance.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Alabama is a good to great team. They are the 27th total offense and are putting up 34.6 ppg (20th). And surprisingly they've been better through the air (28th) than the ground (34th). Defensively they are beasts. The 6th overall defense is just allowing 14.1 ppg good for 5th nationally. They are the 22nd ranked rush defense and the 12th ranked passing defense.

MSU isn't quite the juggernaut statistically the Tide is, but they're still solid. The 38th, 39th, 39th and 43rd ranked total, scoring, run and pass offense is good for 31.3 ppg. Defensively they've been good as well. Ranked 31st in total defense they give up 20.1 ppg (25th). They are better against the run (20th) than the pass (58th).

Bama was good against winning teams at 4-3. MSU was better at 5-1. Verse ranked foes MSU had the advantage but only faced one team and won, where Bama saw five and went 2-3. Down the stretch Bama went 3-2 and MSU was 4-1.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Oh Gerrard Butler. I don't care if it's so 5 years ago. Spartans!

Vegas Edge
Bama is a seven point fav in this one. Both teams went 6-5 ATS this season. Bama wasn't a dog all season so finished with that record as the fav. MSU was 2-1 as a dog.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
I like the match up with Saban facing his old team. I just don't know if the Spartans will fold like they did against Iowa. This defense is better than Iowa's and if MSU can't run the ball they'll be in trouble. I just can't see Bama going down here. Tough draw for Sparty. Bama wins and covers.

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