Thursday, January 6, 2011

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Bowl Bowl

This game is as ridiculous as this commercial.

The Where and When:
January 6th, 8:00 p.m. est, Ladd-Peebles Stadium, MOBILE, AL ESPN/ESPN3.

The Who:
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) vs Miami (OH) RedHawks (9-4, 7-1 MAC)

The Why:
MTSU finished 3rd in the Sun Belt this year and is taking their 3rd trip to a post season bowl game.

The RedHawks had a surprising turn around year and took home the MAC title. This will be their 10th all time bowl game.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
The Blue Raiders aren't a very good statistical team. They are just the 69th ranked total offense and score 26.9 ppg (62nd). They are the 31st ranked rush attack but just the 82nd ranked passing O. Defensively they are what you'd expect from a Sun Belt team. They are 70th, 65th, 99th and 24th in total, scoring, rush and passing defense. Nothing out standing.

Miami is a pass heavy attack. The 83rd total offense is only scoring 20.3 ppg. They can't really run the ball at 114th but are the 33rd ranked passing offense. Defensively they are decent. The 28th total defense is 48th in scoring. They are good against the run at 18th and decent against the pass at 56th.

MTSU was 1-1 verse winning teams where Miami went 7-1 vs non-winners. Miami was far more successful against non-AQ schools going 9-1 where MTSU went just 5-4. MTSU finished at 3-2 and Miami took care of business finishing 5-0.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Blue Raiders. RedHawks. These two teams are very colorful. I like that. Between the two I like blue more. So I'll go with the Blue Raiders.

Vegas Edge
Miami opened a 3.5 fav, but the line has since shifted to MTSU -1.5. MTSU was just 4-7 ATS where Miami was much better at 9-4. Miami went 5-3 ATS as the dog and MTSU was 3-5 ATS as the fav.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Miami lost it's coach and that is likely the reason for the line shift. But I'm not sure it's going to matter. Sure the Sun Belt has dominated the MAC this bowl season, but I think Miami is too good defensively for MTSU. Look for the RedHawks to welcome their new coach with an upset bowl victory.

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