Saturday, January 1, 2011

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2010: Outback Bowl

Outback Bowl



The Where and When:
January 1st, 1:00 p.m. est, Raymond James Stadium, TAMPA, FL ABC.

The Who:
Florida Gators (7-5, 4-4 SEC) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5, 4-4 Big Ten)

The Why:
Florida survived a rebuilding year finishing 7th in the SEC to extend it's bowl streak to 20 games.

Penn State was another team on the rebound this season. Finishing 6th in the Big Ten they will be traveling to their 36th bowl appearance.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
For what Florida has been the past few years, you'd have to say this offense is disappointing. Finishing 80th in total offense they managed 29.3 ppg (47). They are the 43rd rush offense and just the 86th passing O. Defensively they are good. The 9th ranked total D only allows 21.1 ppg (31st). They are better against the pass at 13th than the run at 27th, but still very good.

Penn State was fairly pedestrian offensively after shuffling around starting QBs most of the season. They are the 66th total offense and are 81st in scoring. They surprisingly pass (52nd) better than they run (81st) the ball. Defensively they were solid as usually. The 42nd ranked total defense gives up 22.6 ppg (40th). Although not great against the run at 74th, they are good against the pass at 22nd.

Neither team was particularly good against winning teams as the Gator were 2-5 and PSU went 3-4. Florida was 5-5 against AQ schools where Penn State managed a 4-5 record. Down the stretch they were both 3-2.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Didn't Penn State's coach invent football? Shouldn't he win every game? I mean I made up a game once and I would win every time. Plus isn't Florida's coach on his deathbed or something? I don't know. I'll go with the old guy. Win Lions!

Vegas Edge
Florida is a 5 point favorite. Neither team has been good ATS with Florida going 4-6 and Penn State going 5-6 ATS. Florida is just 3-4 as the favorite. But, PSU is only 1-4 as the dog.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Well we all know this is Meyer's swan song at Florida. And I don't think there is any way the players will let him go off without a win. Not to mention Florida is just better defensively. No way Florida loses this game. They'll win, cover and carry Urbs off into the sunset.

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