Thursday, September 29, 2011

Roll Tide.....enough said. SEC Week 5 GOTW

Before we move on to yours truly making my second consecutive winning selection let's take a moment to recap last week's ACC action. Specifically, NVNole again showed that in his world objective analysis is secondary to some dream that FSU will actually win a game. Not convinced?

Go back and read his last two GOTW posts, as well as his "lock of the week" from last Saturday. Yep, Miami. Isn't that one of FSU's biggest rivals......and yet he picked them. If I'm not mistaken, not only did they not cover, but they actually lost to a Kansas State team that was a seven point underdog and may, or may not, be coached by a guy who is already dead. But hey, in this economy I'm sure the casinos appreciate your money.

Fortunately, I nailed the Florida/Kentucky game (you can thank me later) although honestly that pick was as easy as knowing that more than one person who posts on the blog has kids (then again, if you're blogging about the Big 12 and have a Steele Jantz tattoo across your chest I guess you forget small details like the fact that your humble correspondent is a proud father).

Anyway, enough of that - on to why I am confident Alabama takes care of business in the Swamp. Looking at the numbers, especially on defense, things seem pretty even. That is, UF is 5th in rushing defense at 56.5 yards/game while Alabama is 3rd at 46/game, Alabama is 2nd in points against at 8 pts/game while UF is 4th at 9 pts/game, Demps averages 9.4 yds/carry but Lacy is at 8.9 yds/carry, 'Bama is 21st in points/game while UF is 15th, etc. etc.

But, while the stats seem even at first glance, the underlying component to consider is the competition that each has faced. Specifically, Alabama went to a hostile environment in Happy Valley and emerged with a 27-11 win (they were up 27-3 late and gave up a garbage time touchdown), they throttled a top 20 team (and top 10 offense) last week in Arkansas, and now that they've settled on AJ McCarron at QB they are gaining steam every week.

Meanwhile, UF has played FAU, UAB, Tenn, Kentucky, and any team supported by NVNole. Okay, I'm just making up the part about NVNole. But, my point is, the stats are the same for each team but when you look at the competition, it's clear that 'Bama is the winning pick.

Look for it to be a low scoring affair with the defense dominating on both sides. That said, look for Marquis Maze to make a play, Brantley to make a mistake late and the 'Bama faithful to be chanting "Roll Tide!!" as the Saban bests his protege Muschamp by a final of 24-14.

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