Thursday, October 20, 2011

The Perfect Parlay Card: PAC-12

Just like Billy Joel told us, sometimes you just have to "rub your neck and write 'em a check, and go on your merry way". And if you've been betting the PAC-12 at the 'book this season, you're probably having to do just that.

Did you know that only two PAC-12 teams are over .500 Against The Spread (ATS)?

Personally, this little tidbit helps me sleep at night...knowing I'm not the only one struggling this season. But who needs to sleep when you're stuffing your pillow case with cash? Or swimming in your money vault like Uncle Scrooge? I'll take money over sleep any day.

Well, rest I won't...until I can decipher this week's PAC-12 matchups....and show you the Perfect PAC-12 Parlay Card.

PAC-12 WEEK 8 MATCHUPS (all times EST)

UCLA @ Arizona -4 (Thurs 9p)
Against the spread, these two teams are pathetic. A combined 3-9 ATS. So who's got the edge? The one-win 'Cats are coming off a bye week, and they have the 3rd best passing offense in the BCS. 'Zona averages 27 pts per game...but score over 36 against non-ranked schools. (If you didn't realize, 'Zona has already played 3 teams in the BCS top 10.) Now, in each of the Bruins' wins, they've won by scoring 27 or 28 points. In each of their losses, the opponent was able to put up 38+ points. The key for UCLA to win this one: their run game will have to control the clock. Can they get it done? Stay away from this game...because the only winner is Vegas. 'Zona 31-27...push.

#10 Oregon -31 @ Colorado (3:40p)
Once against, the wounded Ducks leave me clueless on who's gonna be participating in this game. James is awaiting a brace. Thomas is recovering from a late-game injury last week. And they're playing Colorado...which means you don't need to risk further injury. Colorado is 2-5 ATS, and after last weeks non-cover, Oregon is only 3-3 ATS. This is another huge spread for the Duck Replacements to cover...but I look for the Ducks' defense to hold tough and the second string offense to move the ball. Oregon covers 41-9 .

Utah @ California -3 (7:00p)
Both teams are looking for their first conference win on Saturday...and luckily, one team will get it. After a successful trip out east, Utah is once again looking for their defense to show up. Although Cal has a great passing game, the past three weeks have progressively looked worse. And unfortunately, starting linebackers McCain and Hendricks are questionable. Can Cal move the ball and put up points...or are the Utes going to control the ball and another grind out the win up the middle? Neither team is good at covering the spread, so this one is one the shoulders of the home team. Cal a snoozer.

USC +9 @ Notre Dame (7:30p)
We all know that if you're scoring on a Saturday night, you'll want a Trojan. And take it from me, Trojans cover up to a spread situation. ND 28-24

#22 Washington +21.5 @ #8 Stanford (8p)

Conference stars look to shine in the national spotlight this weekend in Palo Alto. We all know about Andrew Luck's rankings and accolades...but it's Washington QB Keith Price that may surprise you.

Price is 2nd in the PAC-12 behind Luck, and has the 5th-best passer rating in the nation. After dropping an early season loss at Nebraska, the Huskies have really come into their own, chalking up four straight wins...and stepping into the BCS Top 25.

Sharing the spotlight for the Huskies is RB Chirs Polk, who is the conferences second-leading rusher. The Cardinal D hasn't faced a ranked team yet this year, so we'll see if they're worthy of National Champion talk.

Luck is looking to extend his 10-game home winning streak...and improving to 16-1 all time at home. He's kept his jersey clean thus far behind a new offensive line...and is hoping Clorox2 doesn't call him with a commercial sponsorship opportunity on Sunday.

There's no doubt in my mind that Standford wins this game. And they win with conviction. But can they cover and win by 22? Stanford is perfect ATS...and Washington is 5-1 ATS. Does Stanford continue to pour it on...or will the Huskies make it interesting?

For the 3rd straight week, I'm betting against Stanford. But if you're not locking in your bets until Saturday...make sure the line hasn't changed. Stanford 42-21

Washington State -3 @ Oregon State (10:30p)
Easy. Cougars 4-2 ATS -vs- Oregon St. 2-4 ATS. The Cougars have the 11th ranked passing offense. 'Nuff Said. Wazzu 34-17

...And this week's PERFECT PAC-12 PARLAY made up of any bet outside of the PAC-12. Stay away from the West this week...and let's make that PAC-12 money in week 9.

Dear Various Vegas Sports Books,
I need to update the home address on my checks. And yes...that's my mother's name on the account too...

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