Friday, November 4, 2011

He Said. He Said. South Carolina vs Arkansas

It's back! A little He Said. He Said. This week we'll take a look at that other game happening in the SEC.

(10) South Carolina (7-1, 5-1) @ (9) Arkansas (7-1, 3-1) 7:15 ET ESPN/ESPN3

He Said South Carolina
Hey Everybody,

Well, after taking a week off, Lazy Sweatpants is throwing me into the sweatshop - in addition to winning my loyal readers some money on the game of the year, I am going "bonus round" and letting all of you in on a second game, a second win, and even more free money to spend on your wife, hooker, boyfriend or blow up doll (depending on your pleasure......and yes, Lazy we know your preference. Speaking of, does anyone have an air pump Lazy can borrow?)

More specifically, while Lazy (I've dropped the Sweatpants, much like he does when his boy Sven comes over) is trying to talk you into Arkansas with smoke and mirrors about Bobby "I Quit Atlanta" Petrino and Woo Pig Sooey (what does that even mean? To cheer for a pig? Or just Breezy's girlfriend?) I'll provide you with the standard analysis detailing why South Carolina is the pick. 

To start, the SC D Line is stout, and the defense in general is only giving up about 17 points per game and 266 yards per game. Meanwhile the Pig (no, not Breezy's girlfriend, or what Lazy calls his "woman"...they go by "Oinky" and "Jeff" by the way) is giving up 396 yards per game and in the only game they played a team with an actual defense they put a grand total of 14 points......yep, 14. Contrast that with SC, who are a last minute score against Auburn from being undefeated (and in the top 5) and the pick becomes more obvious.

That said, I'm sure Lazy will talk about Lattimore being injured and SC's offensive struggles, and (perhaps surprisingly) I wouldn't disagree that clearly the offense took a hit when one of the best RB's in the country went out.......but, C Shaw is growing in his role as starting QB, the D is menacing, and I have no doubt the Ol' Ball Coach will have a surprise or two for the Pig. At the end of the day, I think SC controls the clock (they average 202 yards per game on the ground, 23rd in the nation...which means a lot of time consuming, clock killing drives) and although I'm not sure they come away with a win (so don't take the money line) there is more than enough evidence that SC will keep it close and bring home the money on a parlay.

I think SC keeps it close and win or lose, it comes down to the wire so take SC plus the points. Since Lazy is always bugging me for scores (so he can pad his bets when I invariably nail this one) I'll say Arkansas 24-21. 

He Said Arkansas
I have to be honest, I was a little surprised SEC Guy wanted to get back to the HSHS this week. I was certain he was in his little man cave working himself over to some Saban/Miles SEC porn. But I guess after being bottled up for a week, he had to find as many outlets to spew his dribble. So here we go.

First off let's discuss what's at stake. For SCAR it's their last major hurdle they need to get over to secure the SEC East title. Only a reeling Florida team remains after this game in conference play. Arkansas still has an outside chance at the West title. It'll take a miracle, but there is still a chance.

Too bad for SCAR, there is really no chance they win this game. First off, a lot like my counterpart here, they play down to their competition. Why else do you see so many Breezy comments? They beat Georgia and Navy by three. Miss St by 2 and Tennessee by 11. That's not exactly domination. Not to mention they haven't faced a team that is still ranked yet this year. Arkansas on the other hand has defeated two ranked teams, handily, and their only loss is to Bama on the road.

I don't even think I need to get into the loss of Lattimore or the dismissal of Garcia. That leaves the 65th ranked overall offense without it's top two weapons. It's resulted in their lowest offensive output all season. Arkansas isn't shutting down opposing offenses, but it's not like they're going to face a huge challenge.

Yeah defensively SCAR is good. But the closest thing they've seen to the Hog offense is East Carolina which is 29 spots below Arkansas in total offense. Their stats are impressive, but again, they haven't really faced anyone.

Look in the last two games, SCAR has struggled mightily on the road against less than stellar competition. Where as Arkansas has been down right dominate at home. Much like yours truly dominates in this here space (yeah we let the southeaster bunny boy think he's special).

The line has moved from 4.5 to 5 in Arkansas favor. I just don't think anything less than 7 is enough. If your smart you'll take Bama boy's picks when he's taking the easy Bama or LSU pick. When you're looking for a game that take a little insight and skill, you might want to think about another option. Arkansas wins 33-20.

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