Tuesday, December 27, 2011

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2011: Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl


The Where and When:
Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, Ford Field, Detroit, MI, Wednesday December 27th, 2011, 4:30 ET ESPN/ESPN3

The Who:
Western Michigan Broncos (7-5, 5-3 MAC) vs Purdue Boilermakers (6-6, 4-4 B1G)

The Why:
The Broncos finished 5th in the MAC, third in the MAC west. This is the third bowl game for Western in the last five years. This will be just the fifth bowl game for the Broncos.

Purdue finished third in the newly formed Leaders division but seventh overall in the B1G. This will be Purdue's 16th bowl all time and their first since 2007.

What SmartyPants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Western is your typical MAC team. All offense. The 18th ranked scoring offense is all about the pass. JR QB Alex Carder is a solid QB and a playmaker. The Broncos will look to him to get it done as they are just the 86th ranked rushing offense.

Defensively the Broncos hope that the offense outscores their opponent. The 100th ranked total defense is 72nd in scoring, 107th against the run and 52nd against the pass.

Purdue is not the Drew Brees' Purdue. Ranking 38th against the run they are the 67th scoring offense and the 79th total offense. They will throw a little off play action and rank just 83rd.

Defensively they'll hope their 36th ranked passing defense can stop Carder and company. They are 64th in scoring, 68th total and 89th against the run.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Detroit is in Michigan and it's Western Michigan. Duh!

Vegas Edge:
The line opened -1 in favor of Western. It currently sits at Purdue -1.5. WMU is 8-4 ATS where Purdue is 5-6-1. Against non-winning teams Western is 6-2. Purdue went 0-5 against winning teams. If that's not enough the O/U is 62.5.

Sweatpants Verdict:
Purdue hasn't beaten a winning team all season. That's enough for me. I thought they would have trouble with Western's spread offense already and the 0-5 record sealed it for me. Look for Carder to make some big plays with his arm and legs. Western 42 - 27

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