Thursday, December 22, 2011

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2011: MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

I have a feeling Arizona State is going to be saying "Please let what happens here, really stay here."*

The Where an When: 
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV Thursday December 22nd, 8:00 ET ESPN/ESPN3

The Who:
Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6, 4-5 PAC 12) vs (8) Boise State Broncos (11-1, 6-1 MWC)

The Why:
The Sun Devils find their way to Vegas after finishing 6th in the newly redesigned PAC 12. They are heading to their 25th bowl and first since the 2007 Holiday Bowl.

The Vegas Bowl committee felt they would get a better draw bringing runner up Boise State to town instead of MWC champion TCU. The Broncos can at least claim victory over the Horned Frogs in one thing this year. Boise is in its 10th bowl in a row and 12th all time.

What Sametypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
ASU is a pass first offense. Ranking 11th in the Nation by racking up 312.2 ypg, Brock Osweiler leads a pretty good aerial attack. The Devils do average 140.7 ypg on the ground, but do do to open up the routes for their receivers. Putting up 33.9 ppg, ASU is ranked 25th in total offense.

On the defensive side of the ball, things aren't so rosy. Ranked 89th in total defense they give up 26.3 ppg, good for 63rd nationally. Surprisingly, they are horrible against the pass at 107th. They're a little better against the run (59th) but I wouldn't hang my hat on it as a strength.

Those numbers have to have Bronco QB Kellen Moore licking his chops. Moore leads the 7th ranked scoring offense which is also the 9th ranked total offense. They are one spot better than the Sun Devils in passing and 40th rushing the ball at 172.7 ypg. They are potent. Defensively, Boise has been dominant, as well. The broncos are 10th in scoring, 16th total, 22nd against the run and 25th against the pass.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I love warm weather. And Arizona is warm. But Boise has that quirky blue field. It's kinda like I the Smurfs played football. I love the smurfs! And I love horses. Go Smurf Horses!

Vegas Edge:
Boise is a 14 point favorite. The o/u is 68. In their last five games ASU is 1-4 and on the season 1-1 verse ranked teams. Boise has had their way with in ranked teams goin 10-0 and they defeated Georgia, the only AQ school they faces. Boise has had to deal with some crazy lines and therefore went 4-8 ATS. ASU has been the dog twice this season and lost both but going 1-1 ATS. ASU is also 4-8 ATS.

Sweatpants Verdict:
I have this game as my highest confidence pick in the Productive Sweatpants Bowl Challenge. ASU, down the stretch, has been dreadful. You have Kellen Moore facing the 107th ranked passing defense. I know thus far the favorites haven't shined, but I think this game changes that. Boise blows the doors off the head coacheless Sun Devils 45-24.

*shameless self promotion? You betcha!

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