Thursday, September 27, 2012

Bound, Bound, Bound and Rebound.

Last week was bad. I admit. Actually, I understate. Last week was awful, but weekends like this happen from time to time. It's part of betting and is the law of averages. Good handicappers generally end the season slightly above 50%. I was cruising along at a 70% clip and one bad weekend brought me right back into reality. Order has been restored.

I stand by my proclamation that betting against these teams for the rest of the season will make you money. I will update that later in the year. For now, here are your picks for week five.

Week 4 Results:
3-2 SU
0-5 ATS

Season Stats:
15-5 SU
10-9 ATS

Florida State @ South Florida (+17)

Florida State is good, possibly even great this year, but I’m not sure they’re used to it yet. Teams that are new to such success (and the Seminoles have not satisfied their expectations for success lately) often find it difficult to handle the high emotions of a signature win. For Florida State, this was it as far as competition in the ACC is concerned. No one left on their conference schedule has the talent and skill that Clemson had on their sideline. So, for them, this was their last major obstacle to get into the ACC Championship game. Cue the potential Let Down Game. Seventeen points on the road after an emotional victory sets up a good opportunity to benefit from that let down. Florida State is a good team, but even good teams stumble from time to time.

Florida State wins, but don’t get the cover.

South Carolina @ Kentucky (+21)
Beware this sleeping SEC power. All they have done this year is cover big spreads. This is only their second road game, but it is against a pretty bad Kentucky team. A team that lost to teams with mascots such as “Hilltoppers" and "Flashes.” They are also just seven months removed from a basketball National Championship and my opinion of basketball schools has been talked about previously. I expect South Carolina to continue its rise to the top of the SEC and this Kentucky squad will do little to stop them.

South Carolina rolls with the cover.

Ohio @ UMASS (+24)

No, I’m not poaching UMASS from Drake, but he does have a point about how awful they have been and that Matt Barry is old. Ohio has been a consistent cover all season long and I’m looking for them to continue that trend.

Ohio wins and covers on the road

Oregon @ Washington State (+30)

You burned me last week, WSU. I will not forgive you. It was my mistake for believing in you a little, I'll admit, but losing to Colorado is simply unacceptable. You have not covered a spread all season long, mostly playing the favorite. This weekend, you are a dog, at home, by 30, to a powerful and fast Duck squad.  Granted, they too have been hard pressed to cover their spreads, but that may have changed last weekend. Do me a favor and don't piss me off again you little bloodsuckers.

Oregon covers on the road.

Oregon State @ Arizona (-2.5)

Has anyone actually paid attention to Oregon State? I thought their beating of Wisconsin was an indication at how bad the B1G was, but the Beavers followed that up with a win against UCLA. Granted, the Bruin’s signature win to date was at home against another B1G opponent, Nebraska, but it was still a solid victory. I’m jumping on this bandwagon before the books take note.

Oregon State takes the Money Line (it means they win outright) and covers the spread.

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