Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Drake's Divination: Week 3 - Own The Night!

Have to have it when the GOTW features Notre Dame, no?

Week 2 picks

Pretty decent week here at DD. And a very nice week to start laying some jack on Saturday action. I'd say you're welcome, but I've screwed you over enough times to know I need to be very humble. Let's break down last week's games.

USF @ Nevada
Line: Nevada -1
Result: USF 32 - 31
Divination: USF 27 - 24
Quote: Pretty much nailed this one. Nevada's secondary is pretty much a tire fire. Keep an eye out for that all season.

Georgia @ Missouri
Line: Georgia -2
Result: Georgia 41 - 20
Divination: Missouri 30 - 27
Quote: Old Man Ball kicked Mizzou square in the nuts. Welcome to the SEC Tiger fans.

Vandy @ Northwestern
Line: Vandy -3.5
Result: Northwestern 23 - 13
Divination: Northwestern 31 - 30
Quote: See, the B1G can play with the SEC.

Ok St @ Arizona
Line: Ok St -10.5
Result:  Arizona 59 - 38
Divination: Ok St 42 - 30 (but, the bet was to take the over 69.5)
Quote: Holy turnovers Batman! I'm glad you took the over on this one and stayed away from my game pick. I have a feeling betting on either of these teams is going to be risky all year.

Florida @ TAMU
Line: TAMU -1.5
Result: Florida 20 - 17
Divination: Florida 30 - 20
Quote: Well I got one of the two SEC debuts right.

The Divination Record
This week
SU: 3-2
ATS: 4-1

Season
SU: 8-2
ATS: 5-3

Week 3 Divination
One more week where the books can get smarter. We try to stay a step ahead of them and keep the Week 2 momentum going.

(13) Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (0-2, 0-1 Big East)
Saturday, 9/15 12:00 ET ESPNU
Line: VT -10

Since, UMASS is playing Michigan and I have a rule against betting on Michigan games, Pitt steps in as my "bet against a terrible team" pick this week. The Panthers scored 17 and 10 against Youngstown State (Yes, the FCS Youngstown State) and Cincinnati respectively. I'm not sure how they are going to put up any points against a Bud Foster defense. They are 116th in Offensive FEI. It could get ugly for Tino and the crew.

I know Chryst's Panthers need a win, but I just can't see that happening here. Yes, Pitt is at home. Yes, the Hokie offense has been running like a '72 Datsun, but did Logan Thomas break his legs or something? Why is this only 10 points? Is this one of those traps the odds makers set? I don't think so. Give the points and gear up for the evening slate. VT 33 - 6.


Ohio Bobcats (2-0, 0-0 MAC) @ Marshall Thundering Herd (1-1, 0-0 C-USA)
Saturday, 9/15 6:30 PM ET
Line: Ohio -6.5

When the MAC and C-USA line up, you have to tune in. Oh, it's not on TV? Anywhere? But it's the MAC vs C-USA! WTF?

All kidding aside, I think this Ohio team is pretty good. They are efficient offensively (15th FEI) and solid defensively (55th FEI). I get that New Mexico State is bad, but despite its problems, Penn State is no push over and the Bobcats went in to Happy Valley and walked out with a decisive "W". Add to that, Marshall is 122th in Defensive FEI. Most of that was because of the 69 WVU put on them, but Western Carolina added 24. At least the offense can score enough to keep pace.

Ohio is 2-0 ATS and Marshall is 0-2. I don't see those trends changing this week. Ohio wins 42 - 30.


BYU Cougars (2-0) @ Utah Utes (1-1, 0-0 PAC 12)
Saturday, 9/15 10:00 pm ET, ESPN2
Line: BYU -4

The Romney Bowl! Wait it has a name? The Holy War? Really? I thought it was morally wrong to label football games with war-type things? Those Mormons are a violent bunch aren't they?

Last week the Utes suffered a heartbreaking loss to Utah State for the first time since 1997. On top of that, their starting QB "retired" after his third shoulder injury. But that's not why I like the Cougars in this one. I like them because their defense is bad ass. Ranked first in offensive FEI, they shut down the new WSU Air Raid offense in week one. Not only that, but their offense is in the top 25 for efficiency as well. Not to mention they are avenging last year's pantsing by this same Utah team.

The Utes are beat up and have a shaken confidence and I think Bronco Mendenhall is looking for some payback. BYU 30 - 17.


Houston Cougars (0-2, 0-0 C-USA) @ UCLA Bruins (2-0, 0-0 PAC 12)
Saturday, 9/15 10:30 pm ET
Line: UCLA -17

Hold on to your hats for this game. Much like last week's Ok St/AZ game, this one promises some serious offense. The O/U is at 74.5. UCLA is the 3rd ranked total offense and is averaging 81 plays/game. Last week Houston ran 115 offensive plays tying a NCAA record. In a loss. That's insane. I'm a little pissed this game isn't on TV. I may have to drive over to LA and catch it.

UCLA is 2-0 ATS and has gone over in both games. Houston is still figuring things out after firing their offensive coordinator and putting in one who closely resembles a 12 yr old Xbox NCAA Football champion. At the very least bet the over, but you can double up by taking UCLA. UCLA 52 - 33.


GOTW
(20) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0) @ (10) Michigan State Spartans (2-0, 0-0 B1G)
Saturday, 9/15 8:00 pm ET ESPN
Line: MSU -6

So far, MSU has looked like the class of the B1G. Granted, that isn't saying much given the conference's performance thus far, but it's something. Notre Dame smoked Navy in that weird Ireland game and then squeaked out a win last week against Purdue.

The Spartans are ranked 3rd in defensive FEI defensive. They are good, defensively. Kelly yanked his QB late in the Purdue game but gave the starting job back to him this week. That kid is a sophomore. Think that will be weighing on his mind at the first sign of trouble in this game? Yeah, me too.

Nine of the last twelve games in this series have been decided by single digits. I think both of these teams are good defensively. But, I think the Spartan offense has found a groove and the defense gets a couple key turnovers to seal it. Michigan State 24 - 17.

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