Thursday, September 20, 2012

Paddington Stats with Orange Lady Marmalade

I’ve calculated the results so far, and if you are using any other’s information to make your bets, you’re doing it wrong. I know it is still early, but I’m giving you a 70% winning percentage ATS which is 20 points higher than my closest competition. Do yourself a favor and listen to me.

Week 3 Results:
3-2 SU / 2-2 ATS

Season Stats:
12-3 SU / 10-4 ATS

This week, I decided to take a break from predicting the good games of the weekend to focus on sure winners. It's not exactly the Divination's strategy, but I guess I will stroke his ego and give him credit. These teams should be bet against heavily week after week. You may not win every week, but you will profit over the season. Guarantee.

Except for Florida State and Clemson. I was forced to pick that game.

GOTW
Clemson @ Florida State (-13)
So, this is a matchup of two ACC teams. I don’t like the ACC. I don’t watch the ACC. I admit this has all the trimmings of a great matchup, but I don’t care about that and I certainly don’t care about this game. I'll be watching K-State/Oklahoma.

YAWWWN! Florida State wins 21-10

LSU @ Auburn +20.5
Gene Chiczk looked like a coaching genius when he, two years departed from a dismal coaching record in Ames, led the Auburn Tigers to the promised land of a SEC National Championship. Fast forward another two years and the Gene Chiczk Iowa State fans were so un-enamored with has resurfaced in Alabama. Tiger fans don't fully understand what is happening, yet, but they soon will. They will not tolerate mediocrity for long, and the only thing that has saved Chiczk’s rear end to this point is Cam Newton and the boosters who bought him in (not a typo). Gene does not coach; does not inspire; and certainly does not make good players great. He wins only when his talent far outweighs the competition’s. Without that, he is mediocre AT BEST and will be fired at the end of the season, if not before.

But, this is about the game, not my hatred of some two bit college coach. LSU has better talent and a better coach.  I know Summer is officially over tomorrow, but Chiczk's seat becomes hot this weekend.

LSU 42-21

Kansas @ Northern Illinois (-10)
Normally, I would be appalled at the notion a MAC school could be a double digit favorite over a Big XII school. But, that school is Kansas, and as we have pointed out week after week, they are not good. They did show some statistical fight against TCU, but I’m not sure who TCU is yet this year. Northern Illinois is a decent, mid major program. Hi, Matt Barry. They gave Iowa a run for their money in the first week of the season, and beat the Army Black Knights on the road in a high scoring adventure. They will win their third win this weekend, and Kansas will officially look towards college hoops season.

Northern Illinois wins by two touchdowns 28-14

Air Force @ UNLV (+10)
I thought there was some hope for UNLV this year with their opening effort against Minnesota. Yes, I stated that Minnesota was bad, and yes I was right about that, but I still walked away from that game with a feeling of hope. As an Iowa State fan, I’ve felt that feeling many times and should be wiser because of it, but I fell for it again. Northern Arizona was a warm slap to the face of Rebel fans, pulling them harshly from the dreamy space of Optimismdom. I empathize with you. I do. I understand and have been there before. Hell, with the Cyclones 3-0 heading into an off week, I might be there now. All I can say is, take advantage of your inability on the field. You live in a town where sports betting is legal. Visit your local book and make money off of your misery. I will.

Air Force wins and covers 24-10

Colorado @ Washington State (-20.5)
How are you 14.5 point dogs to Washington State? THE Washington State who have shown they have yet to fully grasp Mike Leach’s “hey we’re going to throw a bubble screen here” philosophy? I’ll answer. You’re Colorado. A team that Savannah State is calling repeatedly to see if they can get on their 2013 schedule.  A team that lost to California State-Sacramento, a FCS participant who went 4-7 last year finishing 6th in the Big Sky Conference. A team that was losing 55-7 at halftime TO FRESNO STATE last weekend!

Colorado makes Kansas look like the 1994 Nebraska Cornhuskers. Washington State is bad, but Colorado is just horrendous. Please put your money against Colorado every week from this point on. You’ll love me for it.

Washington State finds their mojo against this pathetic offering with a win and a cover, 55-10

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