Thursday, September 20, 2012

Vegas Rundown - Week 4

Can no one from the State of Utah kick a field goal? Apparently the fundamentals of kicking field goals are not a priority anywhere in the State. First, the Utah State Aggies sent a kid out to try his first ever field goal, on the road, at Big 10 Badass Wisconsin with only a few seconds left on the clock. The kick would have given the Aggies their biggest win in school history, but the poor kid missed it and is probably still having nightmares. Then there was the debacle of a game between BYU and Utah, I actually lost money on this one so it stings a little more. The previous game would have just been a good laugh at the Big 10’s expense. Anyway, the BYU game literally ended three different times with students storming the field each time, but there was either a penalty or review of the clock that forced everyone back to the stands for one more play.

I am not usually a conspiracy theorist, but let’s face it BYU is the pride of Utah and it was like the officiating crew was saying “OK BYU we will help you out one more time, c’mon tie this game up so we can help you in OT.” I won’t get into all the details, but BYU was given 1 second on the clock to attempt a mid-range FG and missed, then they were given one untimed down to try an even shorter field goal and missed again to end the game. The funny thing is that BYU used two different kickers in 1 second of clock time and both FREAKING MISSED. So three kickers from the State Utah had a combined three kicks in less than 15 seconds of clock time all failed to convert. I guess there is no reason to dwell on last week’s losses.

One thing I do want to give you a head’s up on is the Texas Longhorns. They won me some nice cash last weekend and are still a little under the radar, so in the coming weeks they are team I would keep an eye on.

As always here are my picks for the week. Take them or leave them, I still don’t care.

Arizona Wildcats v. Oregon Ducks, 7:30 PM PST, ESPN(OR -23.5, O/U 77.5)
We finally get to see the Ducks against a semi-quality opponent. This line opened at 26.5 and has been bet down to 23.5 so there may be some skepticism on behalf of the gambling public that Oregon is for real. I think this is finally going to going to be the stage for Chip Kelly to finally unleash the full playbook and let his starters play the whole game. Because Oregon has played subpar teams up until now no one is sure if they are a contender for the national title or not. With Alabama and LSU sitting on top of the polls I think the Ducks need to make a statement. The loss of senior safety John Boyett may be cause for concern because he was the leader of the defense. If Arizona had not beaten a very overrated Oklahoma State team this bet would be a no-brainer, but they did beat a Big 12 team so there is some reason to be cautious with this one. The over in this game has been bet up to 77.5 from 72 so the value on the over is gone. The only way to play this game with current line is to go with the under or give up the points with Oregon. However, if the points go above 24, I would advise taking another look at Arizona.

The Pick: Oregon -23.5

California Bears v. USC Trojans, 6:00 pm PST, (USC -16, O/U 58.5) 
Somebody has to pay for the game last week and it is going to be the Cal Bears. Cal put up a good showing last week at the Horseshoe, but after watching Ohio State a few times, I think they may have some issues on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t need to go into any stats for this game, bottom line is Lane Kiffin is not a happy guy and will not take his foot off the pedal in this one. USC is going to roll in this game and then proclaim that they still belong in the national championship discussion. They beat Cal last year 30 – 9 on the road, this one could get out of hand.

The Pick: USC -16

Air Force Falcons v. UNLV Running Rebels, 7:00 pm PST, (AF -10.5, O/U 57.5) 
The line in this game is a little bit of head scratcher. Air Force is coming off of a bye week that followed their gutsy performance in the Big House, losing to the Wolverines by a paltry 6 points. The Falcons have not failed to beat the Rebels by double digits since 2008 and UNLV lost to a FCS school two weeks ago. Last week I mentioned that the players may play their best game to help save the season and their coach and they did come close, losing 27-35, however, this week the calls for their coach’s job have eased, why? Because everyone moved on, basketball practice starts soon. I would be surprised if they get 10,000 people at this game and it will probably be over by halftime. Coming off of three emotional weeks the Rebels have to prepare for a very unique running attack and I just don’t think they have the personnel to do it, injuries are starting to pile up and AF comes into this game rested and ready to get their season back on track after taking their crack at Michigan. I hope I am wrong on this one, Bobby Hauck seems like a good guy and perfect fit for the program, but may not be here next season if they don’t get this thing turned around.

The Pick: AF -10.5

BYU Cougars v. Boise State Broncos, 6:00 pm PST, (Boise -6.5, O/U 49) 
I am still convinced that Boise State is an overvalued team due to their past four year’s performance. We have now found out that the Michigan State team that beat Boise may not be as good as advertised and BYU almost knocked off a Pac 12 team last week. Boise has only played once since the opening Thursday night, a win against Miami, OH. I just don’t think we have seen the full impact of losing so many players from last year’s Bronco team and BYU will be ready to get things back on track after last week’s disappointing loss. Would someone up in Provo please just coach up the kickers!!!

The Pick: BYU +6.5

Florida State Seminoles v. Clemson Tigers, 5:00 pm PST, ABC (Noles -14. O/U 57) 
All that know me would probably expect me to write extensively about this game. However, since this is the game of the week I will let the others give you the details. You know where I stand, sold out night game in Tallahassee with the ESPN Gameday Crew in attendance. The time is now for Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles. It is an opportunity for FSU to show they belong among the elite of college football. GO NOLES!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Nole! Your picks won me some cash last week. I'll check in often. Awesome....cuz you're the Boss!