Thursday, October 25, 2012

Vegas Rundown - Week 9

Did anybody else hear Brent Musburger toward the end of the Florida State v. Miami game last weekend? Well, he let a little gambling talk slip out on national television. FSU was leading by 20 with just over a minute to go and they let Miami drive down to the ten yard line and Mr. Musburger said “there are a whole lot of mathematicians across this country that are very interested in what is going on to end this game.” The spread in the game was FSU -18 so a Miami garbage touchdown was going to swing this game into the loss column for a lot of people. This may not seem like a big deal to those of us who look at every game based on what the spread is, but ABC and their family of networks, which includes ESPN are owned by family friendly Disney, Inc. and they probably don’t appreciate talk of an activity that is illegal in 49 of 50 states being talked about in primetime. Good for you though Brent! I wish all the commentators would discuss the point spreads, hell he even went on to talk about his good friends in Vegas, probably trying to cover up the earlier flub, but hey, the fact that gamblers even got a mention in primetime is a move in the right direction.

The more that point spreads being set by experts can get discussed by commentators the better chance we have of getting a real ranking system. If the people willing to risk millions have the number 8 team as a double digit favorite over the number 5 team, then we must make the logical conclusion that the current poll system is a joke. Anyway, we will talk more about the polls as the BCS Game gets closer.

Here are my picks for the week, take them or leave them, I still don’t care about your opinion.

Oklahoma v. Notre Dame (OK -10.5, O/U 48) 
Alright Big 12, if you are as good as advertised, it is time to prove it. Notre Dame has yet to play a top ranked team and they will be playing a very talented and motivated Oklahoma team on the road. If Kansas State is as good as they looked last weekend, then Oklahoma’s loss to them may not be the blemish it seemed to be earlier in the season. If the Sooners can win this game and a few things break their way, they could be right back in the MNC hunt at the end of the season. The deciding factor for me on this one is that the Irish cannot seem to figure out who their quarterback is and going on the road to a hostile environment may expose this to be the weakness that I think it is. The Pick: Sooners -10.5 and the under, I think this game ends up around 28 – 10 Sooners.

Clemson v. Wake Forest (Clemson -12, O/U 59) 
I am not sure why this game has moved from an opening line of Clemson -16 down to -12. Florida State demolished this Wake team and I would say that the Tigers are not too far behind the Noles in talent. It could possibly be that this is a Thursday night game on the road, because strange things seem to happen on Thursdays to road teams. However, I think Clemson is way too talented to let this be a close game. The Pick: Clemson -12

Penn St. v. Ohio St. (Pick’em, O/U 50) 
First, I don’t want to see Ohio State go undefeated. Second, I have won a substantial amount of money with the Nittany Lions this season, so why not stay with the hot hand. That’s it, I am going with the Nittany Lions. The Pick: Penn State

Kansas State v. Texas Tech (KSU -7, O/U 59.5) 
Are the odds makers thinking let down in this spot? Kansas State defeated Iowa State by six on the road in a look ahead game and Texas Tech has similar talent to the Cyclones. This game is in Manhattan and now the Wildcats are starting to believe that they belong in the national championship discussion. I don’t think there is any way that veteran, and I mean really veteran, coach Schneider is going to allow this team to have a let down. The offense is starting to click for the Wildcats, I think they roll is this game. The Pick: Kansas State -7

UNLV v. San Diego State (SDSU -18, O/U 57) 
I really just wanted to pick an underdog since the rest of my picks were either the favorite or a pick and this seemed like a good play. UNLV played UNR very tough for three quarters and the Aztecs needed the last play of the game to escape Reno with a one point victory last week. I think UNLV is close to San Diego State in the talent department and it looks like QB Nick Sherry is going to play. So I am going to go with the Rebels +18, now if Coach Hauck can do some decent game day coaching we should be cashing a ticket on this one. The Pick: UNLV +18

No comments: