Thursday, October 4, 2012

Will the Real Big XII Please Stand Up

Things are leveling out a bit for me. I’m a notch above 50% on the year ATS, and that is alright with me as long as I stay away from the parlay bets.

Week 4 Results:
5-0 SU
2-2-1 ATS

Season Stats:
20-5 SU
12-11-1 ATS

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech O/U 58
I learned something about Texas Tech last week. Their defense ranking is well deserved. As I stated earlier in the week, they made Iowa State’s offense look like it didn't belong on the same field. Landry Jones is no Steele Jantz, and this is a good thing for Oklahoma fans, but he has not exactly ripped apart great defenses either. He currently ranks 62nd among FBS schools in QB rankings. I’m not sure if Oklahoma leaves Lubbock with a win, but I all but guarantee these two teams do not combine to score over 50 points.

Take the under

Washington State @ Oregon State -15
The perfect game. I get to combine my two betting bandwagon teams into one easy pick. Oregon State continues to win and cover. Washington State continues to do the exact opposite. The fact that you only have to give 15 points makes this even sweeter.

Take Oregon State and give the points

Iowa State @ TCU -10*
I made a promise to myself when I first moved to Las Vegas never to bet on my team. There are too many ways to lose and the heartache is not worth it. Plus, my biased opinion would often blind me to the reality of the situation. I hope I have matured beyond that by now, but we will have to wait and see.

Iowa State’s offense is bad and it starts and ends with the play at quarterback. Steele Jantz has developed only two identities this far; Hero and Goat. The bad part, if you’re a Cyclone fan like me, is it was determined that Steele gives us the best chance to win each week. Which is terribly depressing.

There is a bright spot in this game, however. Their offense isn't that good either (especially if Pachall rides the bench for poor decisions), and our defense has proven to be one of our best ever. This should give us an opportunity to keep it close and allow Jantz one last shot at redemption. I think we have a good chance spoiling the Horn Frog’s first ever Big XII home game and I want to be able to say, “I told you so.”

Iowa Sate wins and covers regardless if Pachall plays or not.

*Note: This game is already off of a couple boards due to the indefinite suspension of Pachall.

LSU @ Florida +2.5
Beware the sleeping Tiger. After two lackluster performances, LSU has “slipped” to number four in the most recent polls and Les Miles is not happy about that. And now, for the misdirect. LSU has a 1-2 record against Florida in the Les Miles era and Zach Mettenberger is making only his second road start. His first was against Auburn where the Tigers struggled to a 12-10 win. Florida is into the running game, averaging nearly 225 yards per game. Against SEC opponents Texas AM, Tennessee and Kentucky none-the-less. LSU will not handle that kind of heat in the swamp very well.

Florida wins and covers

West Virginia @ Texas -7
West Virginia made a statement to the Big XII fans in a big way during their first ever conference game. In doing so, they helped perpetuate the stereotype that the Big XII doesn’t know how to play defense. They made it hard to make any type of argument after some 1,500 yards of offense went down in Morgantown, but I swear all the conference is not like that. Texas is known for possessing a punishing defense, but was exposed a little last week against another prolific offense, Oklahoma State, and currently rank 45th in total passing defense.  Their only chance to win this one will be to slow Geno and hope for a couple of interceptions.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Mountaineers travel and begin the meat of their inaugural run in the Big XII.  My guess, they’ll walk away with a hard earned victory, but don’t look for a high scoring affair this time.

Take West Virginia and the points

No comments: