Sunday, December 30, 2012

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2012: AutoZone Liberty Bowl

If you're like me you'd rather watch this video 100 times in a row than see this rematch again.

The When/Where:
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Memphis TN, December 31st, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
Iowa State Cyclones (6-6, 3-6 Big XII) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3, 7-1 C-USA)

The Why:
I don't know why. I really don't. I mean we had this game already, to start off the year. I mean the Liberty bowl typically takes the #8 or #9 SEC team and C-USA #1. Well, we got half that equation right. I guess the bowl organizers thought they were being cute. Either that or they love the weather channel.

Anyway, ISU enters it's 12th bowl game and post a record of 3-8. Tulsa has gone 8-9 in bowl games all time. 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Tulsa has a pretty solid offense. They enter the Liberty Bowl as the 25th ranked total, 11th rushing, 73rd passing and 28th scoring offense. But put up just 23 points in the first match up. ISU's offense is fairly average. They are 89th in total, 66th rushing, 80th passing and 83rd in scoring. They're not going to wow you on that side of the ball.

Defensively, Tulsa also has the statistical edge. Ranking 31st, 18th, 58th and 40th vs 99th, 69th, 112th and 36th in total, rushing, passing and scoring. The numbers for the Clones aren't too good, but as you can see they are a bend but don't break defense.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I've often wondered which is worse: cyclone or hurricane. I've always thought the element of water made the hurricane more devastating. I think I'll go with the hurricane. 

The Vegas Edge:
ISU is 1 point favorite. They won the first match at home by 10. Ames is worth 9 points to Vegas. And you know what I can't argue with that. Tulsa went 8-5 ATS on the year. The Cyclones were much less reliable at 5-6-1. ISU won and covered in the first match up, but they are just 22 - 40 ATS on the road, on turf since 1992. That's, um, quite a stat. The over is 51 and I think that's worth a look

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Why? That's all I want to know. I asked Vegas CyClown if he wanted to preview this game and he said no. What does that tell you? Damn you bottom half of the SEC for sucking so bad.

I think anything could happen in this game. It's going to be a measuring stick for both teams to see how they've progressed over the season. The forecast is 43 with a 60% chance of rain. That really sucks and favors Tulsa's running game. With the Clones away from Ames and Tulsa with the revenge factor, I think I have to give the Hurricanes the edge.

Tulsa 35 - 33

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