Monday, December 31, 2012

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2012: Discover Orange Bowl

Anybody else annoyed by the BCS lovers hating on the MAC Champs?

The When/Where:
Discover Orange Bowl, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL, January 1st, 2013, 8:30 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
(15) Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1, 8-0 MAC) @ (12) Florida State Seminoles (11-2, 7-1 ACC)

The Why:
The Orange bowl takes the ACC champ and a BCS at large. We know that FSU won the ACC. The story everyone is complaining/talking about is the MAC champ, NIU, getting the autobid by finishing in the top 15 of the BCS and therefore fulfilling the non-AQ autobid requirement.

FSU is entering its 42nd all time bowl game where they've posted a 25-14-2 record. David on the other hand is entering just its 13th bowl game and obviously its first BCS game. The Huskies are just 5-7 all time in bowl games. 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
We've got good offenses on both sides of the ball in this match up. FSU enters the game with the 12th ranked scoring offense good for 39.9 ppg. They are the 23rd, 28th and 41st ranked total, rush and passing offense. NIU, in true MACtion style, is 8th in scoring at 40.8 ppg. They are the 14th, 9th and 62nd ranked total, rush and passing offense in the nation. Solid on both sides.

Where the tables tilt a bit is on the defensive side of the ball. FSU is a good defense. Giving up just 15.1 ppg (6th), they are the 2nd, 5th and 3rd ranked total, rush and passing defense in the land. The Huskies were 'MAC good" on defense. The 33rd, 34th and 41st ranked total, rush and passing defense only allowed 19 ppg (18th). Like I said, "MAC good".

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Did you know that Garnet is a color? Me either. But both FSU and South Carolina have it. Weird.

I digress. In this game, it's a battle of two teams who are too cool for the color Red. Cardinal vs Garnet. I don't know. Garnet sounds cool, but I never knew it existed. The Cardinal is the state bird of Illinois. Now see that makes sense. Go Huskies!

The Vegas Edge:
Vegas thinks this game is going to be a laugher. FSU is a 13.5 point favorite. The O/U is 58.5. On the year NIU was a solid 9-3-1 ATS. FSU was a dismal 4-9 ATS. Not to mention they went 0-6 ATS as a favorite between 10.5 and 21 on the season. Yikes!

The Sweatpants Verdict:
David verse Goliath, right? I guess. But what people have talked about all season is FSU's weak-ass schedule. It comes in at 80th. NIU was 107th. I'd like to talk about ACC vs MAC, but Saragin put the ACC just two slots above the MAC. I think this game is going to be closer than people think. With Jimbo's panache for big game duds and with FSU's ATS record, I think NIU is the bet. I still think FSU has the horses to get the W, but it won't be comfortable for NV Nole and Seminole fans.

FSU 34 - 30 

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