Sunday, December 30, 2012

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2012: Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

I love me some Connie Britton!


The When/Where:
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, LP Field, Nashville, TN, December 31st, Noon ET, ESPN

The Who:
North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5, 4-4) @ Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4, 5-3)

The Why:
The Music City bowl actually got what it was suppose to get. The Pack finished 6th in ACC and Vandy finished 7th in the SEC. See, some things are still as they should be.

NC State is 14-11-1 going into it's 37th bowl game all time. While Vandy is entering just it's 6th bowl game, where they've posted a 2-2-1 record. 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
The raw stats may not show it, but this is a pretty equal match up when we look at overall team efficiency numbers. NC State rolls in at 56th and Vandy is 52nd. The key is going to be if Vandy's 9th ranked passing D can shut down NC State's 20th ranked passing offense. Neither team will light up the scoreboard at 60th and 51st respectively.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Vanderbilt is like Towson for me. I have no idea where either of those schools are. So I'm going to stick with the State school in this one. At least I'll know where to direct my ire if they lose.

The Vegas Edge:
Vandy is a 7.5 favorite with the O/U sitting at 51.5. Vandy went 8-4 ATS on the year, but was 0-4 against winning teams. That said, all four losses were against ranked teams, which NC State is not. NC State on the other hand was an unreliable 5-6-1 ATS on the year and went 1-3 against winning teams. For me, the under is the play here.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
I would rather watch a Nashville marathon than this game. It's just an ugly game. I think we'll see very little scoring with a few costly turnovers by both teams. I like that fact that James Franklin committed to stay and Vandy. That says a lot about him and his program.

Vandy 28 - 20

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