Friday, December 21, 2012

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2012: MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

What says Boise State more than Lil' Wayne?

The When/Where:
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, NV, December 22nd, 2012, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
Washington Huskies (7-5, 5-4 PAC-12) @ (19) Boise State Broncos (10-2, 7-1 MWC)

The Why:
The Las Vegas bowl pits the winner of the Mountain West against the number five team from the PAC-12. Which hasn't worked out so well for the PAC-12 as they are just 5-6 all time in the game. Both teams finished in their respective spots to get them into this game.

This is Boise's third year in a row in Las Vegas where it's looking get it's third victory in a row. They are 8-4 all time in bowl games. Washington is just a hair over .500 all time at 16-15-1. 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Neither of these teams are burning up the offensive side of the ball. The Huskies come in at 101st in total offense, they fairly balanced at 87th and 92nd in passing and rushing offense. And the are an average offensively efficient team. Boise enters the game a little ahead at 76th in total offense, 52nd rushing, 80th passing and 54th in scoring offense.

Defensively Boise has a decided edge. They are the 9th ranked total defense which is 4th against the pass and 40th against the run. They are also fairly stingy as the 6th ranked scoring defense. Washington is a bit more generous. They are the 30th ranked total defense, 16th against the pass and 67th against the run.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I visited Seattle for the first time last year. It was really nice. I really want to go back and explore the city some more. Plus my brother lives in Tacoma now. I visited Idaho with my grandparents when I was a kid. I think I liked Washington more. Yeah.

The Vegas Edge:
Boise is a 5.5 point favorite adn the over is set at 46.5. Boise was 10-2 ATS this season, but I never quite felt confident enough to take them all season. I think the MSU game scarred me. Looking back I think I missed out, because they went 3-1 against winning teams. Washington on the other hand had a tougher road, but went just 3-4 against winning teams. Add in that they are 1-3-1 ATS against the MWC and that 5.5 becomes more and more interesting. One last thing to consider is Boise is 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games. Pretty impressive.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
This is a tough one for me. This isn't a dominant Boise team, yet they only have two losses this season. Maybe my standards for the Broncos are way too high. Both teams finished strong at 4-1. But, Boise lost to the only AQ school they faced. I'm torn.But it's hard to bet against Boise here. Peterson is a great coach and with this much time to prepare, You have to take the Broncos.

Boise State 28 - 21

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