Friday, December 28, 2012

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2012: Valero Alamo Bowl

Which Alamo Bowl virgin will feel the pain in their first Alamo Bowl?

The When/Where:
Valero Alamo Bowl, Alamodome, San Antonio, TX, December 29th, 2012, 6:45 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
(23) Texas Longhorns (8-4, 5-4 Big XII) @ (13) Oregon State Beavers (9-3, 6-3 PAC-12)

The Why:
San Antonio calls on the #3 team from the Big XII and the #2 team from the PAC-12. Since the PAC-12 sent two teams to BCS games and technically UCLA has more losses (thank you conference championship games) we get the fourth place finisher, Oregon State.

Strangely (I'm not sure why, but it was to me) this is both teams first trips to the Alamo Bowl. It's just the Beavers 16th bowl game (10-5) and it is Texas' 51st bowl game (26-22-2). 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Texas is a very balanced offense. Ranking 37th in total offense they are 46th and 43rd in rushing and passing. They are also very efficient at 18th in the land. The Beavers are less so. Slightly better in total offense at 34, they are 101st in rush offense and 15th in passing offense. And they are a more efficient offense than the Longhorns at 13th.

On the other side of the ball is were things are weird. This isn't a Texas defense of years past. They are the 76th total, 101st rush, 39th pass and 72nd scoring defense in the country. When did the Big XII become the MAC? Oregon state on the other hand was rather impressive on the year. The 31st total, 29th rush, 47th pass and 22nd scoring defense, helped the Beavers get their fair share of In and Out Burger on the year.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
The battle of white and black.

I mean to compliment orange of course. I'm a big fan of Halloween, so I guess I need to go with the Beavers.

The Vegas Edge:
The Beavers are 3.5 point favorites in this one. The over/under is at 57.5. If you read the Divination at all this season, you know that Oregon St was a favorite of mine all season long. And it paid, as they finished 8-4 ATS. Texas on the other hand was cursed by it's name and probably was overvalued throughout the year finishing 5-7 ATS on the year. They were unpredictable at best.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Finally a game with ranked teams! Which conference was truly the best on the year? Nobody was really talking about the PAC-12 and yet, the top of the league was strong (we won't mention Colorado). I think Texas is a decent team, but when they faced the top teams in the conference they were beat soundly. I think Oregon State is as good as Oklahoma and TCU. Especially on defense. So expect the Beavers to beat up the horns a little in this one. Take the Beavers and don't sweat the hook.

Oregon State 31 - 24

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