Wednesday, December 19, 2012

PS Bowl-A-Thon: San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

According to the Mayans this will be the last football game you will ever see!

The When/Where:
San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA, December 20th, 2012, 8:00 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
BYU Cougars (7-5) @ San Diego State University Aztecs (9-3, 7-1 MWC)

The Why:
The Poinsettia Bowl by contract takes the number two Mountain West Conference and pits it against BYU or a member of the WAC. This year's iteration takes BYU and the number three team from the MWC, the home team, SDST.

BYU enters their 31st bowl game all time and are seeking their 13th win. The Aztecs are entering just their 8th bowl game all time where they have a dismal 2-7 record. 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
So, do you like defense? Well I hope so, because that is what this game is going to be about. BYU enters the game with the nations third ranked total defense. Forming up best against the run at second, they are also thirteenth in pass defense. When you look at their D FEI they are 22nd in the nation. The Aztecs may not be as stout on defense but it is the strength of the this team. Ranking highest against the run at 36th, they are also 60th against the pass and 42nd overall. They are closest to BYU in defensive efficiency at 42nd.

On the offensive side of the ball, both these teams will look to establish the run in an effort to rest their defense. SDST is 16th in the nation rushing the ball but just 106th against the pass. Neither team is burning up the field as they are the 60th (BYU) and 53rd (SDST) efficient offenses in the country.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
The Aztecs are related to the Mayans right? I thought so. So I think it makes sense that they'll be afraid of the world ending the next day so they'll probably be distracted. Plus BYU is Mormon so they'll be carefree as they'll get to go live in Heaven or where ever it is they think they go when they die. 

The Vegas Edge:
BYU is a 2.5 point, basically, road favorite. The over/under is at 49. With defense being the focus of both these teams that looks like a very nice number. BYU has owned the MWC where they are 7-0 ATS against them. Add in that they are 5-2 ATS in bowl games and it's hard not to take a hard look at the favorite in this game.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
I've watched a couple BYU games this year and their defense is hard-hitting and nasty. San Diego State has had a nice season as well. But across the board, BYU is just the better team. I think this number is very, very favorable for the Cougars. So if you haven't already, jump on it now.

BYU 28 - 17

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