Monday, January 7, 2013

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2012: Discover BCS National Championship

I hope you like this kind of football.

The When/Where:
Discover BCS National Championship, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL, January 7, 2013, 8:30 pm ET ESPN

The Who:
(2) Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 7-1 SEC) @ (1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0)

The Why:
The Mythical National Championship (MNC) takes the number 1 and 2 ranked teams in the BCS standings and puts them together to duke it out to see who the champion will be. But really, it's about ESPN, who has TV rights for the SEC, hyping up the damn conference so much that every media voter out there gets brainwashed into thinking it's the greatest conference of all time, each year. So they automatically put the winner of the conference in the game. And then who ever else goes undefeated and plays in a major conference or doesn't play in a conference at all, like this year.

Bama is entering it's 60th bowl game where they have an all-time record of 34-22-3. This is also their 3rd MNC in the last four years.

The Irish are entering their 22nd bowl game boasting a 15-16 record. They are searching for their first BCS victory.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
It's all about the defenses in this game. Both teams are pretty ridiculous in the defensive department. The first (ND) and second (Bama) ranked scoring defenses in the nation give up under 11 ppg. Bama is first in total and rush defense and second in pass defense. The Irish are a little more giving with the yards as the 6th , 4th and, gasp, 21st ranked total, rush and pass defense.

Both offenses are average at best. Bama is 38th, 19th, 79th and 13th in total, rush, pass and scoring. While ND is 48th, 29th, 74th and 74th in the same categories.

Interestingly though, Notre Dame is the more efficient team as the 3rd ranked team, 6th in offense and 2nd in defense. Bama is just behind them at 4th in total, but just 19th in offense and 8th in defense.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I think the Irish mascot guy is pretty cool. But did you know that Notre Dame is in Indiana? Indiana is stinky. Go Tide!

The Vegas Edge:
Should see a lot of action on this game because of the bigness of it. Bama is a 9.5 favorite with the over/under at 40.5. Bama was unreliable at 6-7 ATS on the year. Notre Dame was just slightly better at 7-5. Hard to bet on either team consistently. But, Notre Dame went under in 10 of it's 12 games. The two games that went over: the first game of the year against Navy and the 3 OT game against Pitt.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Is is possible to have both teams lose? I wonder what would happen if the game ended in a tie? Let's all hope for that, shall we?

Alright, I'll make a pick. Obviously both these defenses are bad ass. They are both going to try and run the shit out of the ball. So I think this game is going to come down to the play of the quarterbacks. The winner of the battle between McCarron and Golson should determine who wins this thing.

At the end of the day, I think Notre Dame has gotten super lucky this season. Every team that goes undefeated has to rely on a little luck, but they've gotten more than their share. That said, I think 9.5 points is too much. So take Notre Dame and the under and suffer through what will be super boring game.

Alabama 17 - 13

2 comments:

B1G said...

Take the first half under!

SEC Guy said...

Roll Tide!!!! 'Nuff said.