Thursday, September 12, 2013

Quick Buck Thursday - Macau Edition

This where I'm writing this post from. The wifi is great under that glowing dragon.

Unit Roll – 17 units

Last week was well interesting. Had you taken the bonus picks you would be ahead for the week. So I hope you did.

With another week under our belt, we are inching closer and closer to finding that great value and solid picks. So this week, expect to take a step forward.

TCU @ Texas Tech +3.5 – 1 unit
Tough game for TCU. Paschal goes down with the broken arm. Road game, even if it is a short drive, for a back up QB. I think Tech will have success through the air in this one.  Neither team has been great ATS in their last 9 games, so I’ll go with the line shift and the hungry head coach.

Louisville -14 @ Kent State – 2 units
Big public movement on this game. The line has jumped 7 since open. In most cases, I would back off, but this one is kind of a no brainer. Kent isn’t the same this season without Hazell. Plus it’s hard to stop Teddy B and co.

Bowling Green +2.5 @ Indiana – 1 unit
I mentioned it in my weekend lesson: Get on the BG bandwagon. Indiana had a tough time stopping Navy last week and BG likes to run the ball. I think BG might be that mid-level ATS cover machine this year.

UCF +5.5 @ Penn State – 1 unit
I think Penn State’s QB Hackenberg struggles a bit against this defense. UCF will have some success on the ground and really grind this game out. I think PSU win this one, but doesn’t cover.

Wisconsin +5.5 @ Arizona St - 2 units
PAC-10 spead vs. Big Ten brawn. It’s the oldest tale in the book. The interesting thing about the Badgers, it I feel like they upgraded coaches. Tough assignment on the road, but I think 5.5 points is too many.

The Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Iowa @ Iowa State – under 48.5

Since Baylor is off this week, we’ll stick with the Big XII but look at an under. As a principal I never bet the under. It’s too stressful. The good news is Iowa and Iowa State, may set modern football back a few years in this game. This season these two are 0-3 ATS. But the under is a combine 18-4 in their last 11 games.  Don’t watch this monstrosity, just bet the under and walk away.

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