Tuesday, December 31, 2013

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: AdvoCare V100 Bowl

All reference to Independence Bowl is gone! Gone, but not forgotten.

The When/Where:
AdvoCare V100 Bowl, Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA, December 31st, 2012, 12:30 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
Arizona Wildcats (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) @ Boston College Eagles (7-5, 4-4 ACC)

The Why:
At least it's more marquee than last year's game. Filling in for the SEC this year is Arizona who finished 8th in the Pac-12.

This marks Arizona's 19th bowl game all time and second under Rich Rod. Boston College comes into it's 23rd bowl game and it's first under Steve Adazio and first since 2010. Ironically both these teams faced Nevada in their last bowl game.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Run. Run. Run. And then run some more. Both these teams are run heavy offenses. Arizona is 11th in the country and BC is 20th. While both team rank in the 100s for passing offense. Arizona gets the scoring edge putting up 32.8 ppg to BC's 28.4.

While they are good at running they're not so great at defense. Ranking 46th and 73rd respectively in scoring defense neither team is stopping anyone. In particular BC is terrible against the pass coming in at 112th in pass defense.

Arizona has the efficiency edge in all three categories (total, offense and defense). BC defense again comes in way behind at 82nd.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Oh Rich Rod, will I ever get over our break up? How I miss your offenses this year while I watch Michigan post two negative yard rushing games. Why couldn't you just have fielded a defense? Go Wildcats?

The Vegas Edge:
Arizona -7.5, O/U 57

Arizona went just 5-7 ATS while BC went 7-5. In games with this spread AZ went 1-1. BC hasn't been a 7.5 dog.

Surprisingly Arizona went just 4-8 against the over. Where BC went 7-5.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
All the numbers point to Arizona in this game. I also think that over is in jeopardy. Arizona went 3-4 against teams with winning records while BC was 2-5. I think Arizona is just better. What worries me is that hook.

It doesn't worry me enough though. I think the Wildcats have too much offense for the Eagles and take this game running away (see what I did there? I thought you did.)

Arizona 35 - 24

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