Monday, December 30, 2013

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl


The When/Where:
Monday, December 30th at 11:45 a.m. EST. Fort Worth, Texas. ESPN.
The Who:
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4, 6-2 CUSA) @ Navy Midshipmen (8-4)

The Why:
Navy fills the roll of this years Service Academy for the BHAF Bowl (it's a working acronym). This is Navy's first trip to the bowl. And this marks their 10 bowl in 11 years

The Blue Raiders are the CUSA fill-in for the Mountain West who must not have been able to fill the spot this season. In their first season in CUSA they finished a respectable fourth. This is the Blue Raiders sixth bowl game all-time and first since 2010.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
In a similar game as last year's bowl, these two team are run first offenses. Both offenses rely pretty heavily on the ground game to bring them victory. And mostly its because they can't stop anyone. 

The Raiders come into the game the 25th, 86th and 62nd ranked rush, pass and total offense. They are putting up 30.9 ppg good for 56th overall. Defensively they are mediocre to blah with their weakness against the run (85th in the nation). 

Which is horrible news since Navy runs about 83% of the time. The nations second leading rush offense Navy is putting 34.3 ppg. That said they are only 64th in total offense given that they rank second to last in pass offense. On defense it's a similar tale to their opponent. Bad against the run (84th) and therefore they look good against the pass. 

Look at the adjusted numbers, Navy has a slight edge overall and on offense but is well behind on defense. 

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
This thing sounds like a old-timey battle at sea. Therefore do you like Pirates or Seamen. Yep, I went there. I'm going with Pirates. 

The Vegas Edge:
Navy -7, O/U - 56.5

Navy is an impressive 9-3 ATS and has pretty much covered and won against the teams they should have all season long. As they favorite they went 4-2 ATS. MTU was a lackluster 5-7 ATS and wasn't great as a dog going just 2-3. 

Both these teams finished 5-7 against the over, so the under may be a play to consider. 
The Sweatpants Verdict:
With as poor as both these defenses are against the run its hard not to jump on board Navy's ship pretty quick. QB Keenan Reynolds has been impressive all year and I don't see that changing in this game. Even the 7 points isn't enough to scare me away. 

Navy 38 - 30

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