Tuesday, December 24, 2013

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl

The When/Where:
Tuesday, December 24th at 8 p.m. EST. Honolulu. ESPN.

The Who:
Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2 MW) @ Oregon State Beavers (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12)

The Why:
Filling the Mountain West and Pac-12 roles in this year's Hawai'i bowl are the fourth place Broncos and the eighth place Beavers. Boise returns to Aloha Stadium in its second appearance in the bowl. While Oregon State is making it's first appearance and the Pac-12's second appearance and first since 2006. 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
On paper this is a nice match up. The 25th and 26th ranked total offenses. Boise comes in a slightly more efficient offense. And leads the way as the 16th ranked scoring offense in the nation. 

Defensively neither team is dynamic. Boise is ranked 75th in total defense with the Beavers falling in at 94th. That said, Boise is still only giving up 23.8 ppg. Oregon State gives up almost 10 points more per game.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Horses and Beavers, oh my. Beavers are, well pretty damn cool. What with their wood chopping teeth and tennis racquet tails. What's not to like?
The Vegas Edge:

Oregon State -3.5 O/U 64
Both teams went 6-6 ATS and 7-5 O/U on the year. In games where they are favored by less than 6.5 they are 1-2 ATS. Oh and hey look, Boise is 1-2 ATS when getting 6.5 points or less. When facing FBS winning teams the Beavers went just 1-5. Boise on the other hand went 2-5. Yeah.
The Sweatpants Verdict:
I went 0-4 in the first four bowls. So take that for what it's worth. Boise is busy sending home all it's quarterbacks. Well at least it's starting quarterback. The good news is that he had already been out since October 19th. These are two even teams and I think the talent gap is enough for the Beavers to win a close one. 

Oregon State 31 - 30

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