Monday, December 30, 2013

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: Valero Alamo Bowl

Remember the Alamo, Mack!

The When/Where:
Valero Alamo Bowl, Alamodome, San Antonio, TX, December 30th, 2013, 6:45 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
(10) Oregon Ducks (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12) @ Texas Longhorns (8-4, 7-2 Big XII)

The Why:
San Antonio calls on the #3 team from the Big XII and the #2 team from the PAC-12. Since the PAC-12 sent two teams to BCS games again this year, Oregon makes the trip to the Lonestar State.

Texas returns to the Alamo bowl in consecutive years to face it's second team from Oregon in two years (Last year the Beavers came to town). 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
This is a pretty lopsided match up statistically. The Ducks dominate in every category.

Putting up 46.8 ppg, Oregon is the 3rd ranked scoring offense in FBS. The 9th and 20th ranked rushing and passing offense is good for 573 ypg (2nd). At this point everyone knows they are bad ass offensively. Defensively they are also not bad. Which is all they need to be. They are 66th, 37th and 48th in rush, pass and total D and give up 21.6 ppg.

Texas on the other hand doesn't do anything particularly well. Putting up 31.2 ppg is the 34th, 75th and 53rd ranked rush, pass and total offense. Defensively it isn't much better. The 81st, 49th and 63rd ranked rush, pass and total defense, they are 57th in the nation in scoring allowing 25.5 ppg.

Adjusting for schedule and looking at efficiency numbers doesn't paint a better picture either. Oregon is 8th overall where Texas comes in at 39th.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
I do love me some steak. I mean Duck is tasty too. But steak. Oh man give me a big ol 34 oz porterhouse. Now we're talking.

The Vegas Edge:
Oregon -14.5, O/U 68

Not a huge surprise in that line. The trouble is Oregon is just 7-5 ATS on the season. But in 9 of their games they were 21 or more point favorites and went 6-3 ATS.

Texas didn't fair better going 6-6 ATS. And were 0-1 when a dog of this size.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
This match up on paper sucks. But this is Mack Brown's swan song. And that counts for something. Then
again this is a GERG coached defense.

Man I'm so confused. I don't think Texas can win this game, but I'm undecided if Oregon can cover the 14.5. I'm going to say no.

Oregon  45 - 31

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