Thursday, December 5, 2013

Quick Buck Thursday: Championship Week

Look nobody wore a unitard like Freddie.

Well friends the College Football season is drawing to an end. Which means this will be the final football focused Quick Buck Thursday of the season. I know, I know, but try to hold back the tears. Hey we've had a good year. We're up 45% on units for the year. Coming in at roughly a 56% against the spread. Better yet, hitting on about 61% of 5-unit bets. I'll take those numbers all day.

So since this is the last week and there is a small slate of games, I thought I would go ahead and give you the picks for all the games. So let's get started.

Unit Roll - 58 Units

Thursday
Louisville @ Cincinnati +3.5 - 2 Units
The Ol Keg of Nails game. Cincy needs this win and a UCF loss to get into a BCS game. This seems like a very Tommy Tuberville way to get into a BCS game too. Aside from that Louisville is just 4-7 ATS on the year, they've under-performed. In spreads under 3 Cincy is 3-0 ATS. I like hook here.

Friday
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois -4 - 1 Unit
Through out the records when the MACtion crown is on the line. I normally would stay away from this game, because both teams have been pretty good ATS on the year. But looking a little deeper, the Huskies are 3-0 ATS when favored by 6.5 or less and The Falcons are 0-1 when less than 6.5 dogs. And hey, you should always feel good about going with the Heisman candidate in a big game. I will say this, watch the line, if it gets up to 5.5 or higher, I'd flip to the dog.

Saturday
UCF -10 @ SMU - 5 Units
This game's line still isn't listed, so we'll go with the opening line. UCF has been on a bit of a slide going just 1-4 ATS in it's last four games. But look SMU isn't great and UCF needs to win this game to get the BCS birth from the American Conference. We'll see where this line lands, but I'd go as high as -14.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St -10 - 5 Units
Yes it's Bedlam. Yes the Cowboys are 1-9 in the last ten games. But that last win came in Stillwater. And, it's also part 1 of the Big XII Championship. Oklahoma state is just better this year. And they won't need motivation to be up for this game. They are 8-3 ATS on the year and haven't missed a cover in 6 weeks. They're peaking at the right time. Spoiler or not, Big Game Bob, ain't got it this year.

Marshall -4.5 @ Rice - 1 Unit
Conference USA Championship. Can  you feel the excitement? These teams are pretty similar sitting at 9-3. But I like the team that has gone 4-1 ATS the last five games. Not to mention Rice is just 1-2 ATS when less thank 6.5 pt dogs.

Memphis PK @ Connecticut - 1 Unit
The battle for American pride? I guess. Boy this game is not good. But we'll go ahead and make it interesting. Memphis is the more efficient team in all facets. And they are 6-5 ATS, where as UConn went 4-7. It's also important to know that Memphis is 3-1 ATS on the road.

Texas @ Baylor -15 - 2 Units
Big XII Championship Part 2. Baylor is 9-3 ATS on the year. All three ATS losses have been away from Waco. Texas is only 1-3 ATS on the road. Baylor had their scare last week, they know what's on the line. And what sweeter way than to pound Texas?

Missouri +2 @ Auburn - 2 Units
Auburn's luck has to run out at some point, right? One would think. Missouri has had one bad quarter all year and it cost them their only loss. Both these teams have been great ATS. What it comes down to for me is I like the Mizzou offense to take more advantage of Auburn's defense than Auburn's offense exposing Mizzou's defense.

South Florida +6 @ Rutgers - 1 Unit
Wow, great slate this week American conference. Maybe that's just every week and I just haven't been paying attention. Anyway. The only real nugget I could find here is that USF is some how 4-0 ATS and Rutgers is 1-4-1. Got me. But we'll go with it.

Stanford @ Arizona St -3 - 2 Units
Pac-12 Championship! Arizona State is just a different team at home. They are undefeated and 5-2 ATS. Both of these teams two losses came on the road and I don't see why it would be any different in this game.

UL Lafayette +3 @ South Alabama - 1 Unit
Yes, I'm backing a 4-7 ATS, road dog. Sue me. ULL is the better all around team and I'm getting points. I'm taking it all day.

Duke +29.5 @ Florida State - 2 Units
ACC Championship game. Yes Duke is in the ACC championship game. They also haven't missed a cover since September. I know this sounds crazy against the FSU death machine, but it isn't. I just think it's too many points for an offense as talented as Duke's to not cover.

Ohio State @ Michigan State +5.5 - 2 Units
B1G Championship game. Ohio State hasn't covered in three weeks. Their defensive performance against Michigan was atrocious. The Spartan defense is legit and should be able to dampen, not stop, the OSU attack. This feels like a field goal game to me. I don't see a blow out either way.

Utah State +3.5 @ Fresno State - 2 Units
The Mountain West Championship. Fresno has skated by all season. Despite being 10-1 they are just 4-7 ATS. And those covers have come against pretty bad teams. The Chuckieless Aggies have turned in a decent season at 8-4 ATS. With Fresno's BCS dreams dashed last week, look for a let down here.

Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Duke @ Florida State - Over 62
I said it earlier, I think Duke has a chance to keep pace for a while in this game. We all know what FSU can do offensively and I think Duke holds it's own to make this an easy over pick.

The Bob Drake "I need another team for my 21- team teaser" Double Bonus
Utah State @ Fresno State - Over 60
Both these teams have gone over more times than not. The Aggies are good defensively, but they are going to need to get it done on the offensive side of the ball in order to win.

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