Thursday, January 2, 2014

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: Allstate Sugar Bowl

The Sugar Bowl featuring Football Royalty.

The When/Where:
Allstate Sugar Bowl, Superdome, New Orleans, LA, January 2nd, 2013, 8:30 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
(11) Oklahoma Sooners (11-2, 7-2 Big XII) @ (3) Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 7-1 SEC)

The Why:
Ah the Sugar Bowl. A bit of a classic match up as well. Blue Blood football if you will. These two teams have 22 National Championships between them (OU - 7, Bama - 15)

Oklahoma dropped two in conference play and yet kept their ranking high enough to collect a BCS bowl bid. They enter their 47th bowl game all-time and boast a 27-18-1 record.

Well we all saw "The Return", so we know how Bama got it's loss. This will mark Bama's 61st bowl game all time. They will look to extend their winning record of 35-22-3.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Defense highlights this match up. Bama is once again it's dominant self on this side of the ball. The 2nd ranked scoring defense in FBS they give up just 11.3 ppg. They are 9th, 4th and 4th is rush, pass and total defense. And they did it against the defenseless SEC. Offensively, Bama is good, not great. The 21st, 60th and 36th ranked rush, pass and total offense, they put up 38.8 ppg which is good for 16th in the country.

OU is also good, just not as good as Bama. On offense they will go old school and focus on the run. The 17th rank rushing attack keeps them afloat as they are just the 101st passing offense. They come in as the 53rd ranked total offense and put up 31.8 ppg (48th). Defensively they are solid as well. The 20th ranked scoring defense allows just 21.3 ppg. Which in the Big XII is close to miraculous. They are the 26th, 16th and 14th ranked rush, pass and total defense.

The efficiency numbers push this a little further putting Bama as the second ranked team and OU just the 23rd overall.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Two mascots that really make no damn sense to me. A wagon and an elephant? WTF? I guess I'll pick the elephant because wagons are dumb. 

The Vegas Edge:
Bama -17, O/U 51.5

ATS these teams were similar. Bama went 6-5-1, OU went 7-5. Usually a good bet, but the big spreads got them at times. Did you know that Bama was never less than a 7 point favorite all year. And favored by 21 eight times. 8! In games with this spread, Bama went 2-0 and OU went 0-1.

Again, with the total these teams were mirrors going 6-5-1.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
This game opened with Bama a two touchdown favorite and I think that's right. Bama should be in the title game and OU shouldn't be anywhere near this game. Bama destroys one-dimensional teams and that's what this OU offense is. AJ McCarron will be looking to raise his draft stock so I don't think they'll hold back.

Bama 31 - 17

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