Monday, January 6, 2014

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: Vizio BCS National Championship

It all ends tonight and Dan Wetzel finally gets his way.

The When/Where:
Vizio BCS National Championship, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA, January 6, 2014, 8:30 pm ET ESPN

The Who:
(1) Florida State Seminoles (13-0, 8-0 ACC) @ (2) Auburn Tigers (12-1, 7-1 SEC)

The Why:
You know the story. Auburn slides into the #2 BCS slot by upsetting Alabama on the "Kick Six" and beating Missouri in the SEC championship game. Florida State dominated a weak schedule, albeit barely tested during that schedule, to sit atop the final BCS poll.

Florida State enters its 42 bowl game all time and a shot at it's third national title (93, 99). They are on a five bowl game win streak.

Auburn completes an improbably turnaround and enters its 38th bowl game. They are also looking to claim their third national title (57, 2010). 

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
As much as last year was about defense, this year is about offense.

Not to say that FSU can't play defense. As a matter of fact they are the top scoring and pass defense in the nation. Only allowing 10.7 ppg they are the 3rd ranked total defense. Their "weak spot" is their run defense that checks in at 13th in the nation.

On offense Heisman trophy winner, Jameis Winston captains the top ranked scoring offense putting up a crazy 53 ppg. They are balanced as the 23rd and 14th ranked rush and pass offenses.

Auburn is almost as impressive on offense. The 8th ranked scoring offense they score 40.2 ppg. But they do it primarily on the ground, as they are the top ranked rushing attack. Yet they are just the 11th ranked total offense. Mostly because they are 109th in passing offense.

The Tigers have to score to win. They are 38th, 64th, 102nd and 89th in scoring, rush, pass and total defense. They give up 24 ppg.

Schedule is the big knock on FSU, so adjusting for that they are still the number one team in the nation. Auburn is slightly behind them at 4th overall.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
Indians and Tigers. Isn't is against the law or something to have an American Indian as a mascot? I thought I read that somewhere. Anyway, Tigers are better. 

The Vegas Edge:
Florida State -10.5, O/U 68

Both teams were great ATS at 11-2. How they got there was a little different Auburn was a great dog all year going 5-0 in that role. While FSU was never a dog and only had two games were they were favored under two touchdowns.

The over was a good bet with both teams as they combined to go 18-8 against the total.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
Will the SEC's reign as BCS champion final end? It would be fitting wouldn't it? Being the final BCS game and all. I think it will. Florida State seems poised to go out and win this thing. I think they started believe it when they smoked Clemson 51-14.

I think Malzahn has done a fantastic job and I think he'll have some trickeration for the Seminole defense. But the Tigers struggles against the pass is going to hurt them. I like lots of points to be put up and I think Auburn keeps it somewhat interesting. But in the end FSU pulls it out and give our good friend NV Nole a dual college football National Championship.

Florida State 48 - 35

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