Friday, January 3, 2014

PS Bowl-A-Thon 2013: Discover Orange Bowl

Wait so Discover isn't like you anymore, but like a relative who apparently doesn't know your voice on the phone? I'm confused

The When/Where:
Discover Orange Bowl, Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL, January 3rd, 2014, 8:30 pm ET, ESPN

The Who:
(12) Clemson Tigers (10-2, 7-1 ACC) @ (7) Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1, 8-0 B1G)

The Why:
The Orange bowl takes the ACC champ and a BCS at large. With FSU heading to the title game, runner-up Clemson steps in to take on at large Ohio State.

Clemson fell to FSU and South Carolina this year. Two top ten ranked teams. Ohio State took it's only loss to B1G and Rose Bowl champs Michigan State. All three, respectable losses.

What Smartypants Accounting Guy Would Tell You:
Both these teams are solid. But, they excel on the offensive side of the ball. Clemson comes in as the 11th ranked total offense and puts up 40.2 ppg. They do this with QB Taj Boyd, primarily, as they are the 11th ranked passing offense and just the 59th ranked rush offense. Defensively they are pretty good as well. The 17th ranked scoring defense they only allow 21.1 ppg. They are the 51st, 15th and 21st, rush, pass and total defense.

Ohio state is similarly as good on offense, just on the ground. The 3rd ranked rushing attack puts up 46.3 ppg, good for 3rd in the nation. They are just the 91st ranked passing attack, but that is good for a total offense of 7th. Defensively, the Buckeyes struggle against the pass. The 105th ranked passing defense is backed up by the 6th ranked rushing defense. That said they are 30th in total D and 20th in scoring giving up 21.3 ppg.

Ohio State has the edge in efficiency numbers as the 5th ranked team to Clemson's 15th ranking.

Pool Prognosticators Pattern:
A Buckeye is a poison nut. I'm allergic to walnuts. Go Tigers!

The Vegas Edge:
Ohio State -3, O/U 70.5

Both teams were 6-6 ATS on the year (well OSU was 6-6-1). Their games did tend to go over as they were a combined 16-9 against the total. In games with like spreads Clemson went 1-2 and OSU went 1-1. The Buckeyes have not been a dog all season.

The Sweatpants Verdict:
This line seems about right. Can OSU find any solid play in their secondary? Can Clemson figure out how to stop the OSU freight train ground attack? Will I even watch this game?

All valid questions.

I don't think either defense does a good job in this game and the offenses roll. I give the coaching edge to Urban over Dabo. Braxton Miller out plays Taj Boyd and the Buckeyes squeak out a win.

OSU 48 - 41

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