Thursday, October 15, 2015

Quick Buck Thursday: Grinding it out

It's not about having the stones!

One of the big things I’ve learned about sports betting is bankroll management. In previous years my strategy would be to identify the “big bet” game, wagering additional units in an effort to pad my account. Unfortunately, that often let to bigger losses and deeper holes.

If you’ve been paying attention this season, you have noticed I now place the same bet for each game. Because of this strategy, a couple bad weeks early on do not have me chasing profit.

There is something to be said about being Joey Knish.

Bank Roll: 90 units
Season record: 15-15
Bonus record: 7-8

Western Michigan @ Ohio -3.5 – 5 units
Let’s bring back the Ohio Bobcats for another week, shall we? They make a second consecutive appearance mostly due to their 5-1 ATS record but also because they are 3-0 at home and face a Western Michigan team that is 0-2 on the road and otherwise inferior.

Louisiana Tech +13.5 @ Mississippi St – 5 units
“The battle of the Bulldogs” sees a feisty Tech team, head into Starkville sporting an ATS record of 6-2 against winning teams. Miss St has historically struggled in October, going just 2-7 over their last nine October games.

Maybe they’re too focused on Halloween?

Consider, also, Louisiana Tech has a higher S&P ranking and I’ll take the points all day.

Nevada -7 @ Wyoming – 5 units
When selecting games I always try to find some oddity that provides an edge to one team or another.

Wyoming is 0-6 on the year, which isn’t all that crazy to consider but what caught my eye is their 0-3 ATS home record.  Nevada, on the other hand, is 2-0 ATS on the road and should have no problem covering against this bad Cowboys team.

UCF @ Temple -21.5 – 5 Units
Even if you bet this game, you shouldn’t actually watch it.

It’s on at 7:30 p.m. ET; that weird window where you can catch the final minutes after the 7:00 games have concluded and you’re waiting for ASU/Utah to start. So, you can check in on how your ticket is performing without the need to suffer the full four quarters.

Seriously, don’t watch this game.

UCF is 0-6 ATS and a 21.5 point underdog.

I repeat, don’t watch this game.

Arizona State @ Utah -6.5 – 5 units
I think Utah is a playoff team.

Despite their upset of UCLA in LA, Arizona State is under achieving at 2-4 ATS.

This line just dipped below 7 which means get on this game early before it jumps back up.

The Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Memphis @ Ole Miss – Over 68
Alright Ole Miss, I’m giving you a second chance. Last week you simply couldn’t do it on your own so this week I’m providing you a little help to get you over the hump. Let’s see if you can get it done, m’kay?

The Bob Drake “I need another team for my 21-team teaser” Double Bonus
West Virginia @ Baylor – Over 76
WVU is playing away from Morgantown for the second time this season. Their first road trip was the loss to OU in which the total went over 68. The Bears are better offensively and are not going to be nice to the visiting Mountaineers.
The Best Bet of the Week Triple Bonus
Missouri +500 @ Georgia
Both of these teams are now 1-2 in SEC play, their lone conference win coming over a hapless, and Old Ball Coachless, South Carolina team. On top of losing Heisman hopeful Nick Chubb, the Bulldogs are sporting a two-game losing streak. Also, the road team has won all three conference meetings since Missouri joined the conference in 2012.

M I Z…

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