Thursday, November 12, 2015

Quick Buck Thursday: Getting in the Race

Yes, Jim, we're talking about the Playoffs. 

Since the College Football Playoff Committee is a thing, and frankly I am getting bored picking games each week, I’ve decided to give myself a new challenge. Starting today, I will make my picks using only games involving the top 5 teams in the CFB rankings.

Hey look at me getting into the hot CFB playoff action!

Bank Roll: 85 units
Season record: 22-23
Bonus record: 10-12

Minnesota @ (5) Iowa -12 – 5 units
Floyd the Pig is at stake in this B1G West battle and Minnesota actually matches up pretty well with Iowa. While they continue to struggle offensively, their defense is geared to stop the run and force you to throw.

Will newly anointed Gopher head coach, Tracy Claeys, provide his team enough to snuff out the Hawkeyes final four dreams? I don’t think so. This one may be tight for the Hawkeyes early but they pull away and cover late in the game.

Wake Forest @ (4) Notre Dame -27 – 5 units
This one should be fun.

Notre Dame is basically up against themselves in this game - Wake shouldn’t offer much opposition. Giving 27 does concern me a bit, but the Irish are 5-0 ATS at home so my worries are lessened.

(3) Ohio State @ Illinois +16.5 – 5 units
This is a bit of a trap game for the Buckeyes. With Michigan State and Michigan on the horizon, it will be easy for Ohio State to overlook an underrated Illini team on the road. Add in the JT Barrett DUI distraction and this could be a recipe for disaster the defending national champions.

Illinois is 4-1 straight up at home this season. I think three scores is too much for the Buckeyes to give on the road.

(2) Alabama @ Mississippi St +8 – 5 Units
The second of our road favorites has the surging Tide rolling in to Starksville to take on the Bulldogs and those damn cowbells. I really, really loathe watching Mississippi State games - those damn bells are fucking annoying as hell. I would hate to be a MSU fan.

Anyway, the Bulldogs have been good at home ATS and I think Bama enters with a bit of an LSU hangover in this one. Bama takes home a little-too-close-for-comfort victory.

(1) Clemson @ Syracuse +28 – 5 units
At the moment, Clemson sits atop the college football world while the nation waits for them to Clemson themselves. Will this be the week?

Don’t know and really don’t care. The Carrier Dome is a difficult place to win. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS under the dome, 2-0 as the dog. Clemson is rolling, I get that, but 28 is a lot of points in a game that could turn into a shoot-out.

The Baylor Bears Bonus Over of the Week
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky – Under 40
Vandy is the only team in FBS to be perfect against the total. Have to ride them until they are not.

The Bob Drake “I need another team for my 21-team teaser” Double Bonus
Clemson @ Syracuse – Over 57.5
Like I said above, the Carrier Dome is a weird place to play. Syracuse is 8-1 against the total but Syracuse isn’t going to cover by shutting down Clemson’s offense. This thing may end up looking more like a Big 12 game than an ACC affair.

The Best Bet of the Week Triple Bonus
(12) Oklahoma +125 @ (6) Baylor
So, this bonus section is going to change a bit as well. I had a system and it was close to identifying a group of teams that were prime for upsets. And for the most part the best bet did show up in the group, I just didn’t always pick it. And that wasn’t as much fun.
Now we’re going to pick the team that is going to shit their chances at the playoff down their leg. It promises to be fun.
This week, Baylor. Oklahoma is rolling and Baylor is about to fall victim. Baylor struggled at K-State, had a hard time stopping the Wildcats’ “we’re going to run QB dives 80% of the game” offense and wasn’t “Baylor-esque” against the Wildcat D. Well guess what? The Sooner defense is much better and their offense is not even in the same category as Bill Snyder’s Purple Cats.

Home or not, Baylor’s playoff dreams end Saturday.

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